Special Elections Today

Two special elections today, one in Northwest Ohio, another in Eastern Virginia, for Congressional seats left open by the deaths of two Republicans.

In Ohio, Democrat Robin Weinrauch has a shot at picking up the seat of the late Republican Paul Gilmor, but she faces Bob Latta, son of the guy who represented the district before Gilmor. Latta's internal poll yesterday showed him trialing Weinrauch in a district Bush won over 60% of the vote in.

In Virginia, Democrat Phil Forgit, an Iraq war vet is running against Republican Bob Whitman for the seat of the late Jo Ann Davis who died in October. Forgit is an underdog. The seat was won by Bush in 2004 and Republican candidates for Governor (Kilgore) in 2005 and Senator (Allen) in 2006.

If you're in one of these two districts, GO OUT AND VOTE TODAY!

OH-05: Are Republicans Worried?

There's two special elections occurring next Tuesday. One is in the Ohio 5th District, vacant since it's Representative, Paul Gilmor, died in early September. The district leans Republican. It has been in Republican hands since 1939. President Bush won over 60% of the vote in this district.

OH-05 is centered in Northwestern Ohio, including Fremont, Tiffin, Norwalk and Bowling Green, as well as the southern suburbs of Toledo.

The Republican nominee is Bob Latta, an Ohio State Senator and the son of Del Latta, who held the seat for 30 years. The Democratic nominee is Robin Weirauch, who got 43% of the vote against Paul Gilmor last year. As of late, Republicans are pouring a lot of money into the special election campaign, raising flags that perhaps they believe Weirauch to be stronger than they think. An internal poll showed Latta 14 points up, but only at 50%. In response, Democrats appear to have poured a lot of their resources hoping to pull off an upset. Some insiders say the race is likely to be close, reminiscent of the 2005 race in the similarly-conservative Ohio-2 district near Cincinatti where Democrat Paul Hackett, an Iraq war vet, won 48% of the vote against Republican Jean Schmidt, an Ohio state legislature. The closeness of the race (Schmidt's predecessor, Rob Portman, had consistently gotten 70% of the vote in earlier elections) was seen as a harbinger for 2006, when Democrats won both houses of Congress.

Election Day in the Ohio-5 is December 11th

IL-14: Hastert Resigning, Really This Time

He will step down at some point this year.
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid his colleagues farewell in a final speech Thursday, expressing worry about the "breakdown of civility" in politics.
Funny, considering it was under his Speakership that the breakdown in civility began.

Hastert's resignation will trigger a Special Election, perhaps the most contentious one so far in the 110th Congress. (MA-05 was pretty contentious, but to me, it was never a question who would win, it was just by how much).

Hastert's seat was considered a potential Demcoratic pickup in 2008. If Hastert is gone by January 1st, Governor Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, may schedule a special election for the seat on February 5th, the same day as the Democratic primary, which may bring out a slew of Democratic voters who are out for Obama, their native son, increasing the chances of a Democratic pickup.

HOWEVER

February 5th may just be a primary election day, setting up two candidates for a later general election date, that may favor Republicans.

Hastert may also be delaying retirement due to the fact the GOP already has two vacancies and will soon have a third.

Virginia 1 (Jo Ann Davis) and Ohio 5 (Paul Gilmor) are both open until elections on December 11th and Louisiana 1 (Bobby Jindal) will be open soon because Jindal will take the oath of office as Louisiana's new governor.

Paul Gillmor (R-Ohio) 1939-2007

Republican Congressman Paul Gillmor was found dead this morning in his apartment in Washington, D.C.

CNN reports members of his staff found him dead in his apartment after he failed to show up to work on Congress' first day back from Summer recess.

Gillmor has served in Congress since 1989 representing the 5th district of Ohio, located in the northwestern portion of the state including Bowling Green, Tiffin, Fremont and Norwalk.

Gillmor is the third member of Congress to pass away this year, after Charlie Norwood (R-Georgia) in February and Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-California) in April. Gillmor's seat will be filled by a special election.