OR-Sen: Smith's Small Lead

Survey USA;

Smith (R)- 48%
Merkley (D)- 39%

Smith (R)- 45%
Novick (D)- 39%

I'm amazed that Novick, less widely known statewide than Jeff Merkley is doing better than him. Smith is vulnerable, but Democrats will have to work hard for it.

Slight Lean Republican.

Can The Dems Get 60 Seats?

It's possible.

Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;

Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).

That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.

And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.

That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.

MN-Sen: Coleman in Trouble?

I have to say, I'm still quite shocked at the idea that Al Franken is only down by seven in Minnesota.

Amazing to me, Coleman does really well against all three candidates among young voters. Does Minnesota buck a trend that has been seen all over the country? Is do young people just not know who Al Franken is?

Either way, Minnesota still is in the top five most vulnerable GOP seats, along with New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon and Colorado.

OR-Sen: Smith Gets Big Name Challenger

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley is apparently taking on incumbent Senator Gordon Smith (R-Oregon) next year.

Smith, a two term Republican in a blue state, is considered one of the many vulnerable GOP incumbents in the 2008 election.

Merkley's decision comes after Congressmen Peter DeFazio of Eugene and Earl Blumenaeur of Portland both declined to run for Smith's seat.

Smith is perhaps slightly safer than his colleagues thanks to his opposition to the continuation of the Iraq war. Still, Oregon is pretty left-leaning and a Democratic blowout can do for Oregon what it did for Rhode Island last year.

OR-Sen: Blumeneaur Out

Rep. Earl Blumenaur (D-Oregon), the Portland liberal who had been eyed by the DSCC as a potential candidate for the US Senate against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon) will not run.

Says Blumenaur;

"At this unique moment in history there is too much work to be done in the House of Representatives to take on a campaign for the US Senate."

OR-Sen: DeFazio Out

Rep. Pete DeFazio (D-Oregon) will not run for Senate;

"I just did not feel that becoming a junior member of the Senate was going to allow me to serve as well and as effectively, particularly in the short term, as my current position,"

Attorney Steve Novick has already announced he is running, and Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Portland may take a stab at Gordon Smith next year.

DeFazio was considered the strongest challenger to Smith, having led in already released polls.

DeFazio's decision will prevent the DCCC from having to protect his Southern Oregon seat.

OR-Sen, DeFazio Considering A Run

Reluctantly, he says, Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-Oregon) is considering a run against Republican Senator Gordon Smith next year.

DeFazio is widely considered one of the strongest challengers to Smith, second only to former Governor John Kitzhaber, who is not running.

Smith is quite vulnerable, a Republican in an increasingly Democratic state. Smith was one of two GOP Senators (the other was Hagel,) to support the Democrats' funding bill with the deadline. He is increasingly critical of the Iraq war.

While Oregon is not Rhode Island, Smith, along with Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) is seen as a Lincoln Chafee-type character. A fairly popular Republican who can be defeated because he represents a state where his party is super unpopular. Also a factor, whether or not the Democratic presidential candidate is going to be a strong one. Oregon has voted Democratic in the last five elections, but Al Gore only beat George Bush by about 6800 votes statewide in 2000. DeFazio's district is very competitive. Although he has held it since 1986, Bush beat Gore in the district in 2000 and Kerry and Bush both got 49% of the vote there in 2004. It has a PVI of D+1.

A recent poll shows DeFazio would have a slight lead coming out of the gate. If DeFazio was able to win his Southern Oregon district, and get Democrats to the polls in Astoria and Portland, the Democratic base, he could easily oust Smith.

The congressman, however, says the main reason he wouldn't run is his dislike for raising the millions of dollars needed to win statewide.

OR-Sen: Poll Shows Smith Very Vulnerable *

A internal DSCC poll shows Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-Oregon) four points ahead of Senator Gordon Smith (R-Oregon) in a hypothetical race for Smith's Senate seat;

DeFazio (Dem)- 42%
Smith (Rep)- 38%

It's a partisan poll, so it's not really trustworthy, but partisan polls can show weakness (as this does with Smith.) DeFazio may not be the best candidate to run against Smith, but if he leads in a partisan poll, then it's probably really a dead heat.

DeFazio's district, the Oregon 4th, is the traditional swing part of the state. Located down in the Southwest part of the state, bordering California and the Pacific Ocean, it includes Eugene, Springfield, Coos Bay and Albany. Cook gives it a PVI of D+1, DeFazio has held the seat since 1987 and it's been in Democratic hands for three decades. It's no surprise that DeFazio does well against Smith. He can easily win a Senate race by winning the state's traditionally Democratic area; Portland and it's northwestern suburbs to Astoria ,and his own district, while still losing the Salem area (specifically, Darlene Hooley's district.)

Still, bad news for the GOP. Smith is not exactly the most supportive Republican of the Bush Administration. If he's not doing well, imagine how more supportive Republicans like John Sununu (R-New Hampshire) are doing.

Schumer needs to get the ball rolling on getting the good candidates like he did last time.