A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

The Democrats take on...the Democrats?

Now that the Democrats have come back from the dead, it appears the left wing of the party is ready to not only take on the Republicans, but the moderate wing of the Democratic Party too.

Case in point...Representative Ellen Tauscher of California. Tauscher is a prominent moderate Democrat, a member of the New Democratic Coalition and a Blue Dog.

What is the liberal wing's problem with Tauscher? Well, it's a mix of where she's from and what she stands for. Tauscher represents the 10th district of California, just beyond the mountains from San Francisco and Oakland. It includes the San Francisco/Oakland suburbs of Walnut Creek, Livermore and Pleasant Hill, as well as Antioch and Fairfield. Her district voted 58% for John Kerry in 2004.

Tauscher has not been to most prominent opponent of the Bush Administration and has backed them numerous times over the years. Tauscher supported the war in Iraq (although she opposes the troop surge) and has been accused of not being hard enough when it comes to questioning the administration over failures in Iraq. Tauscher even backed a more moderate Democrat in the neighboring 11th district of California in last year's election. The more liberal Jerry McNerney won the Democratic primary and took on seven-term incumbent Republican Richard Pombo, defeating him 53%-47%

Tauscher's moderate stance comes from her 1996 race against conservative Republican Bill Baker, who represented what at the time was the most Republican district in Northern California. Tauscher defeated Baker and took office in a Republican district. Redistricting in 2001 made Tauscher safer, turning her district into a Democratic one. Tauscher's district, however, sits among other prominent California Democrats, such as Doris Matsui, George Miller, Barbara Lee, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, all notorious for being on the left of the Democratic Party. Her district sits in a region known for it's political liberalism. To many liberal voters in the Bay Area, she's a Tom DeLay-type.

The strong Democratic lean of Tauscher's district does not make her vulnerable to any Republican, but rather vulnerable in a primary. Tauscher's district is about as Democratic as the state of Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by a more liberal Democrat. The idea of ousting Tauscher in favor of a Democrat who sits with Miller, Matsui, Lee or Pelosi is entirely possible, and Tauscher knows that.

However, with the Democratic majority still young and fragile, a civil war within the party is probably not a good idea at the moment. The Republicans tried pulling this in the last few years, when their majority was just about as big as the current Democratic one. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter was nearly ousted by the more conservative Pat Toomey in the 2004 GOP Primary, which nearly cost them that seat. In 2006, Michigan Republican Congressman Joe Schwartz was defeated by the more conservative Tim Walhberg, who only won the heavily Republican district 51%-47% against an unknown Democrat. In Rhode Island, the primary challenge of Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey probably cost liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee his seat.

The liberal wing of the Democratic party has the right to protest against the centrist Democrats, but must be careful who it is they target. The Democratic majority was not won only by the liberal base, it was won by independent moderates and conservatives who came back. The Democratic majority would not exist if not for the victories of Heath Shuler of North Carolina, Brad Ellsworth and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Chris Carney of Pennsylvania, Tim Mahoney of Florida, Nancy Boyda of Kansas or Charlie Wilson of Ohio. These moderate to conservative Democrats make up the "big tent" that allows for a Democratic majority. We've seen GOP primary challenges backfire or nearly backfire on them. The Democrats cannot allow that to happen to them...at least not until the Democratic majority solidifies.

I'm sure we will see a primary challenge against Tauscher out in California next year, and I'm sure it will make political headlines, but without the moderates like Tauscher, whom I may disagree with often, the Democrats would not have the majority they had today, and would not have the voice that led them to raise the minimum wage, implement the 9/11 Commission recommendations, or stand up to the President's troop surge.