North Carolina AND California

Earlier I spoke about the North Carolina proposal to split their Electoral Votes by district. I didn't mention that I didn't think it was a good idea, as I don't like Maine and Nebraska doing it either, because, I think if it's implementing in one state, it should be implemented in all fifty.

Here's why...California.

A prominent California lawyer with connections to the state GOP is looking to change the winner-take all rule for the Golden State and allot the state's 55 electoral votes by who wins each Congressional district. That means the GOP could win at least 20 fo the state's 55 electoral votes, which would almost guarantee a GOP victory nationwide.

Democrats need California to win. Loosing 20 electoral votes in California, and winning all the states Kerry won, would mean Democrats would have to make that up by winning most or all of the GOP leaning swing states; Florida (25), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (7), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5) and/or Nevada (5), which, although possible, is not very likely sans a landslide.

If the proposal makes the ballot, Democrats would have to spend millions trying to defeat it, and my guess is it will likely fail as Colorado's did two years ago.

North Carolina; The Red And Blue State

Who will carry North Carolina in 2008…Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, maybe both if what the state legislature is proposing comes true.

North Carolina looks to become the third state, after Maine and Nebraska, to award their electoral votes by who carries each congressional district. Each state's number of electoral votes is equal to the state's number of members of Congress; each state has two electoral votes for the two Senators and at least one for each member of the House of Representatives.

The plan, much like the case of Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes are given to the candidate who carries the state. These two electoral votes represent the two Senators and then the remaining electoral votes, representing the Congressmen, are allotted by who wins each Congressional District. In the cases of Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who has won the state ended up carrying each district (Maine has two, Nebraska three) so we've never actually seen that happen.

North Carolina has 13 Congressional Districts and 15 Electoral votes. Democrats are almost assured of four electoral votes, stemming from the four Democratic-leaning districts; the North Carolina 1st in the northeastern corner of the state, the North Carolina 4th around Raleigh/Durham and the Research Triangle, the North Carolina 12th, the majority black district that stretches from Charlotte to Winston-Salem and High Point, and the North Carolina 13th, which includes Raleigh, Greensboro and points north. Five other electoral votes are guaranteed to the Republicans, stemming from the five Republican-leaning districts, and the rest would be up for grabs, assuming the state becomes a swing state...if not, the EV's would be allotted 11 for the Republicans, 4 for the Democrats.

Supports argue that plan will force candidates to campaign in what has been long considered a solid Republican state. North Carolina has not been competitive since 1992, when George H.W. Bush only narrowly defeated Bill Clinton and hasn't supported a Democrat since 1976, when it gave its electoral votes to Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford. The state was close in 1980 and in 1996, but has gone strongly Republican all other times.

Still, that's four less votes for the Republicans and that's their problem with the idea, but the idea is supported by North Carolina Democrats who control both houses of the state legislature and the Governor's office. The Charlotte News Observers reporters that the bill received tentative approval by a vote of 60-49 in the North Carolina House of Representatives, with five Democrats voting no, all from areas where Republican candidates for federal office perform well in elections.

New Blue States?

States long out of range for the Democrats, may turn blue in 2008.

It's usually the case after a two-term president's replacement is elected. States he won the previous election suddenly are in play.

In 1964, Lyndon Johnson swept the entire country minus the Deep South and Arizona, but Nixon won a large amount of Johnson states in 1968, some (like Utah, North Dakota and Nebraska,) by huge margins

Nixon swept 49 states in 1972, but his party's nominee lost in 1976, with Democrat Jimmy Carter sweeping the South, a region swept by Nixon. Like Nixon, Reagan swept 49 states in 1984, and even though Dukakis did not lose a close race four years later, eight states Reagan carried went to Dukakis, and many more were close.

Of the states Bill Clinton won in his reelection in 1996, Bush carried 11 of them in 2000 and 13 of them in 2004. It should be no surprise more Red States in 2004 will be in play than Blue States.

Take Colorado, a state where John Kerry received a rather surprising 47% in 2004. Democrats picked up the state legislature, a Senate seat and a House seat in 2004, and won the Governor's race and another House seat in 2006. Democrats currently dominate the state government and the Congressional delegation. Democratic power has grown in the suburbs of Denver, in Southern Colorado, in the mountains and in Larimer County, north of Denver, which is becoming the new swing area of the state. The 2008 Democratic National Convention is to be held in Denver in 2008, which can help their chances there.

Virginia is quickly heading in the Democrats' direction, there's no question on this. Democrats won the Governor's race in 2005, despite trailing through most of the campaign. In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican George Allen to win the second statewide race for the Democrats in as many years. The fast growing population of Northern Virginia are becoming more like the Northeast US than the South. John Kerry was the first Democrat in over 30 years to win Fairfax County and Governor Kaine and Senator Webb carried all three of major Northern Virginia counties. A Democrat who wins these three in 2008 may very well carry the state.

Taking Colorado and Virginia alone, with all the states Kerry won, would hand a Democrat the White House, but Colorado and Virginia may not be as easy as the already important swing states, like Iowa and New Mexico, which Kerry lost but Gore won, or Ohio and Florida, the Mother and Father swing states. Florida, however, may be more difficult for Democrats than Ohio, as they haven't had much like statewide, even in 2006.

Democrats will probably poll better than Kerry in states like Nevada, Montana, North Carolina,
Arkansas and Missouri, as these states have been good the Democrats in the recent elections. While Nevada's governor is a Republican and Democrats narrowly lost two House seats in the state, Democrats took a few open statewide seats and have control of half the state legislature. In Montana, Democrats hold nearly all statewide elected offices sans At-Large Representative and Secretary of State, while in North Carolina, Democrats control the state government and the House delegation. Missouri just saw a Democrat defeat an incumbent Senator and Arkansas's entire government is dominated by Democrats...of the southern conservative type.

Of course, the underlying questions is, who do the parties nominate. Hillary Clinton may underperform for the Democrats, while Rudy Giuliani may overperform, although I doubt that will be the case. Polarizing candidates or candidates who run bad campaigns can have a huge effect on the electoral map (see Mike Dukakis)