IL-14: Hastert Resigns...Now

Dennis Hastert's two decade service in the United States House of Representatives which culminated in being the longest serving Republican Speaker of the House came to abrupt end tonight.

The Illinois Republican, who was expected to leave the House soon, resigned effective tonight. His seat will be filled by a special election that will be called by Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich, likely to be held on February 5th to coincide with the Democratic primary in Illinois.

What is that important? Well, Illinois' favorite son, Barack Obama, is running on the Democratic side, and turnout will be huge in Illinois on the Democratic side and it will help the Democratic nominee for the seat.

The district is R+4. George W. Bush won 55% of the vote here. It streches from the Chicago suburbs of Elgin and Aurora through a long swath of Northern Illinios including Dixon to the outskirts of the Quad Cities near the Mississippi River.

Democrat John Laesch won 40% of the vote in 2006 and is running for the open seat, as are Republican State Senator Chris Lauzen of Aurora, who lost the race for Illinois Comptroller in 1998, Republican Mayor Kevin Burns of Geneva, and Republican businessman and former statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, who has run in the GOP primaries for Governor in 2006 and Senator in 2002 and 2004. Democratic candidates include Laesch, attorney Jotham Stein or businessman Bill Foster.

Hastert's depature leaves three Republican seats open, including the open seats og Ohio-5 and Virginia-1, left open by the deaths of Paul Gilmor in September and Jo Ann Davis in October. Both seats are holding special elections on December 11. Republicans currently have 199 members in the House of Representatives, the first time their number has dropped below 200 since 1994. All 233 Democratic seats are filled, but Julia Carson of Indiana is being treated for terminal cancer and is absent from Washington.

Louisiana Governor-elect Bobby Jindal will vacate his seat in January, meaning the GOP will not have a full 202 seats until at least February.

IL-14: Hastert Resigning, Really This Time

He will step down at some point this year.
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid his colleagues farewell in a final speech Thursday, expressing worry about the "breakdown of civility" in politics.
Funny, considering it was under his Speakership that the breakdown in civility began.

Hastert's resignation will trigger a Special Election, perhaps the most contentious one so far in the 110th Congress. (MA-05 was pretty contentious, but to me, it was never a question who would win, it was just by how much).

Hastert's seat was considered a potential Demcoratic pickup in 2008. If Hastert is gone by January 1st, Governor Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, may schedule a special election for the seat on February 5th, the same day as the Democratic primary, which may bring out a slew of Democratic voters who are out for Obama, their native son, increasing the chances of a Democratic pickup.

HOWEVER

February 5th may just be a primary election day, setting up two candidates for a later general election date, that may favor Republicans.

Hastert may also be delaying retirement due to the fact the GOP already has two vacancies and will soon have a third.

Virginia 1 (Jo Ann Davis) and Ohio 5 (Paul Gilmor) are both open until elections on December 11th and Louisiana 1 (Bobby Jindal) will be open soon because Jindal will take the oath of office as Louisiana's new governor.

IL-14: Hastert Resigning

We knew he was retiring, did we know he was resigning?

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert will not complete his term. He will apparently announce his resignation tomorrow triggering a special election.

Hastert's resignation, if before December 11th, would lead to three vacant Republican seats, leaving them with a total of 199 votes. After yesterday's election in Massachusetts, all 233 Democratic seats are filled.

Updated: Open Republican Seats

Terry Everett- Alabama 2- R+13
Ray LaHood- Illinois 18- R+5
Dennis Hastert- Illinois 14- R+5
Chip Pickering- Mississippi 3- R+14
Deborah Pryce- Ohio 15- R+1
Jerry Weller- Illinois 11- R+1
Rick Renzi- Arizona 1- R+2
Duncan Hunter- California 52- R+9
Jim Ramstad- Minnesota 3- R+1
Ralph Regula- Ohio 16- R+3
David Hobson- Ohio 7- R+7
Heather Wilson- New Mexico 1- D+2

Open Republican Seats

Ray LaHood- Illinois 18- R+5
Dennis Hastert- Illinois 14- R+5
Chip Pickering- Mississippi 3- R+14
Deborah Pryce- Ohio 15- R+0.3
Jerry Weller- Illinois 11- R+.05
Rick Renzi- Arizona 1- R+2
Duncan Hunter- California 52- R+9
Jim Ramstad- Minnesota 3- R+1

IL-14: Hastert Retiring

The longest Republican House Speaker in history; Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois) became the second Republican congressman from the Land of Lincoln, after Ray LaHood, to announce he will not run for reelection next year.

Hastert is expected to make the announcement on Thursday. He was widely expected to retire after this term after he decided to not to run for Minority Leader after his party's defeat at the polls last November.

Hastert's district, which covers a wide swath of Northern Illinois from the outer Chicago suburbs of Elgin and Aurora all the way to the outskirts of Moline leans Republican, but not out of reach for a strong Democrat. Like LaHood's similarly Republican district, Democrats are expected to make a strong run for his district, especially with the possibility of a Illinoisan Democrat on top of the ticket.

So far only Republican Jim Oberweis, a strong anti-illegal immigrant advocate, has filed to run for the seat. Oberweis twice ran for the US Senate in Illinois in 2002 and 2004, but lost both times in the primary. He also made an unsuccessful run for Governor in 2006.

Other possible candidates may include Republicans State Senator Chris Lauzen and Kane County Recorder Sandy Wegman as well as Democrats State Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, scientist Bill Foster, and lawyer Jothan Stein. 2006 nominee John Laesch, who held Hastert to 60% of the vote, the lowest since his initial election in 1986 (when he won 52%), is also interested in taking another run at the district.

The two open Illinois seats, as well as the seats of freshman Republican Pete Roskam in the sixth district, Mark Kirk in the Democratic-leaning tenth district and Jerry Weller in the nationally competitive eleventh district may mean Illinois could drown in a Democratic wave next year...no wonder Illinois Democrats are enthusiastically endorsing Obama.