Election Night Recap

It was a pretty good day for Democrats, with some exceptions here and there;

In the big race of the year; Kentucky's Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher lost reelection in a landslide, being defeated by former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear, a Democrat, 59%-41%. Beshear even carried the heavily Republican Cincinnatti suburbs, which Fletcher carried by over 20 points in 2003. Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor-elect Dan Mongiardo was Senator Jim Bunning's 2004 opponent who nearly ousted him, earning a surprising 49% of the vote.

Democratic State Auditor Crit Luallen won her reelection campaign in a similar landslide, and, according to some sources, is being touted as an opponent to Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minorty Leader, next year.

In Mississippi, Democrat John Eaves Jr. lost the Governor's race to incumbent Republican Haley Barbour, but Barbour's 58%-42% victory is smaller than most had expected. Barbour's key to victory lay along the state's Gulf Coast, where he is applauded for his response to Hurricane Katrina. Barbour won nearly 3 our of 4 votes cast in the Biloxi, Gulfport area. Mississippi Republicans won all statewide races, except Attorney General, where Democrat Jim Hood won reelection in a similar landslide to Barbour.

Democrats saw their own success in Mississippi, where they won back control of the State Senate, which they lost in 2004, and increased their majority in the State House.

The big news in state legislature races was in Virginia, where Democrats won control of the Virginia Senate for the first time since 1995. Democrats picked up four seats, including the Fairfax County seat of Republican Jeanmarie Devolites-Davis, wife of US Representative Tom Davis, to take a 21-19 majority in the state Senate. Democrats picked up three seats in the House of Delegates to narrow GOP control 54-44 with 2 Independents.

In New Jersey, where a ballot issue to borrow over $400 million to fund stem-cell research failed, the state legislature did not see big changes. Democratic State Senator Ellen Karcher was defeated in a nasty race by Republican State Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck and in the same district, Democratic Assemblyman Michael Panter, who won his 2005 election by 73 votes, was also defeated. Karcher's defeat was cancelled out by two surprise State Senate victories in South Jersey. In the first district, which includes Cape May and Cumberland Counties, Democratic State Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew defeated State Senator Nicholas Asselta. In the next door Atlantic City-based 2nd District, Democrat Jim Whelan defeated Republican Jim McCullough, but Whelan's assembly seat was lost to the Republicans. Democrats picked up the seat of Republican Bill Baroni in the 14th district. Baroni was elected to the State Senate, replaced Peter Inverso. Democrat Wayne De Angelo won Baroni's Assembly seat and Linda Greenstein, a Democrat, was reelected.

In Ohio, Republican Bob Latta narrowly defeated Steve Buehrer to win the Republican nomination for the Ohio 5th Congressional District special election on December 11th. He will face Democrat Robin Weirauch. Also, Janet Creighton, the Republican Mayor of Canton, located in the battleground 16th Congressional district, an open race next year, was defeated by Democrat James Healy 53%-47%.

In Texas, Democrats picked up a State House seat in Fort Worth in a Special Election, narrowing the Republican majority to 79-71. In Maine, Democrats won an open Republican state House seat, expanding their majority there.

Democrats saw mixed successes in Indiana, where Democrat Bart Peterson, Indianapolis' mayor went down in a shocking defeat against Republican Greg Ballard, but Democrats were fairly successful in other Indiana cities, winning the mayor's races in Fort Wayne, South Bend, Portage, Bloomington, and Elkhart. Democrats defeated incumbent Republican mayors in Anderson and Madison and won an open mayor's seat in Kokomo. Muncie is too close to call, but it appears the Democrat is ahead.

A ballot issue allowing for school vouchers failed in Utah, as did a tax hike on cigarettes in Oregon.

The Mayors of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Columbus, and San Francisco, all Democrats, were reelected, while the Republican mayors of Charlotte, Jacksonville and Tuscon were also reelected. Democrat Michael Nutter was elected Mayor of Philadelphia.

Locally, in New York;

Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan was reelected in the only real race in New York City.

On Long Island; Suffolk County Democrats had a great night. Democratic County Executive Steve Levy won reelection, as expected. The Democratic town supervisors of the former Republican strongholds of Brookhaven Islip and Riverhead all won reelection. Democrats picked up a seat in the Suffolk Legislature to increase their majority to 11-7.

Nassau County saw little change, a pale comparison to two years ago, when Democrats won the DA seat. Republicans took over the Long Beach city council and votes rejected the idea of creating the position of mayor. Mayor Ralph Suozzi of Glen Cove was reelected, while the Town Supervisors of Hempstead, North Hempstead and Oyster Bay all kept their positions comfortably. In the County Legislature, Democrats appear to have kept their 10-9 majority, but failed to come close to ousting any GOP incumbent. Republican John Ciotti, the most vulnerable Republican, defeated his Democratic opponent Ali Marza 57%-43%. Democrat Jeffrey Toback of Oceanside kept his seat by a 54%-46% margin, as did Democrat Diane Yaturo of Glen Cove, who won 57%-43%. Democrat Joseph Scannell of Baldwin defeated his Republican opponent 55%-45%. Republicans have not conceded in the 14th legislative district of David Meijias of Farmingdale, who ran unsuccesfully for Congress against Peter King last year. Meijias leads his Republican opponent by 222 votes, a 51%-49% margin with 300 absentee ballots to be counted. A Meijias loss would throw control of the county legislature back to the GOP.

2007 Governors Races Rankings

There are only three, but they're good ones;

Kentucky: Incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher looks like he's in big trouble against Democratic former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear, who has led by double digits since he won the primary back in May. Lean Democratic

Louisiana: An open seat is the best hope for the Democrats, and even thought it's open, Rep. Bobby Jindal of Metarie is way ahead, but don't count Chalmette State Rep. Walter Boasso out just yet. If it goes to a runoff, Boasso has a shot. Not a very good one though. Lean Republican

Mississippi: Haley Barbour is too popular here, he should be on the Republican VP shortlist or even the 2012 Presidential candidate shortlist should they loose next year. The only Democrat running is John Arthur Eaves, Jr, a pro-life, anti-gay marriage Democrat who has declared; “I am a Democrat because I am a Christian.” It may play well in conservative Mississippi, but conservatives down there have no issue with Barbour. Solid Republican

KY-Gov: Beshear Heading For Lanslide

Could be.

Survey USA Poll:

Beshear (D)- 62%
Fletcher (R)- 34%

This is a bad place for Fletcher to be. He also has the disadvantage for being a Republican right now. Bluegrass Report has some interesting facts from the poll;

Among Females: Beshear 69, Fletcher 27
Among Independents: Beshear 52, Fletcher 41
Among Republicans: Fletcher 60, Beshear 36
Among Democrats: Beshear 86, Fletcher 12
Among Northup Republicans: Beshear 51, Fletcher 36
Among Harper Republicans: Fletcher 51, Beshear 49
Among Fletcher Republicans: Fletcher 80, Beshear 20
Among Beshear Democrats: Beshear 98, Fletcher 2

Beshear gets more than 1/3 of Kentucky Republicans, who, despite being powerful in the state, aren't a vast majority. He even gets 20% of Republicans who voted for Fletcher. I'd like to know what that's about.

Anyway, it doesn't look good for Fletcher. At least Blanco had enough sense to get out of the race in Louisiana.

Looks like the Democrats will balance out this year. Lose Louisiana, gain Kentucky with Mississippi staying the same (GOP.)

KY Gov: Fletcher vs. Beshear

Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher prevailed over former US Rep. Anne Northup in the Republican primary for Governor yesterday. Fletcher, who has been marred in scandal throughout most of his term, defeated Northup 50%-37%.

On the Democratic side, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear managed to avoid a runoff willing 41% of the vote in a six way race. He ran far ahead of Brunce Lunsford, who got 21%. The two were expected to be tossed into a June runoff, but Beshear and his running mate, State Senator and 2004 US Senate nominee Dan Mongiardo, crossed the 40% threshold to avoid one.

Interesting Fact: Beshear won 142, 733 votes in the primary. On the GOP side, Fletcher won 101, 256. In a general election with those numbers, Beshear would defeat Fletcher 58%-42%. Republicans are down in Kentucky due to Fletcher's corruption issues, the decisive primary, and because of national issues that have been bad for Republicans.

Beshear comes out of the primaries as the favorite in the general.

KY-Gov: Fletcher leads Northup

Governor Ernie Fletcher is well ahead of former Congresswoman Anne Northup in the GOP primary for Governor of Kentucky this year.

A Tarrance Group poll, which is a Republican-biased poll, has Fletcher leading Northup 51%-29% in the race for the GOP nod.

A Fletcher win would be good news for Democrats as the Governor has a 63% disapproval rating according to a March Survey USA poll. (His approval rating is negative among Republicans)

In other news, Senator Jim Bunning (R-Kentucky) is apparently supporting Northup in the primary. The junior senator, who narrowly won reelection in 2004 and has a 41% approval rating, is helping Northup by cutting campaign commercials to be aired in Northern Kentucky, where Fletcher is strong among Republican voters.

A Northup victory would be a serious blow for Democratic changes in Kentucky. Although Northup lost her House seat representing Louisville last year, she managed to get 48% of the vote in the state's Democratic stronghold.

Democrats can't win statewide if they only narrowly win Louisville.

Revenge For Daschle?

An attempt to knock off the Senate Minority Leader two years after winning back the majority? Where have I seen this before?

Oh right, the Republicans did that with Tom Daschle. In 2002 they made him Minority Leader, it 2004, they made him unemployed.

It's happening again.

Mitch McConnell may not be on the top of the list of potential Democratic pickups in 2008, but perhaps it should be, and perhaps it will be. This ad may be the first of many we see in an attempt to achieve revenge for Daschle.

Kentucky is not an overwhelmingly Republican state. State Senator Daniel Mongiardo nearly knocked off Jim Bunning in 2004 despite Bush winning the state by 20%. Bunning won 51%-49%.

If Democrats win this year's gubernatorial race, currently seen as a tossup, look for McConnell to shoot to the top of the list of Republicans the Democrats will look to knock off. If the Democratic primary for Governor proves anything, it proves there isn't a shortage of Democrats who can run against McConnell. Dan Mongiardo may decided to take another run for Senate if he doesn't get elected Lieutenant Governor, as may former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry, State Attorney General Greg Stumbo, Congressman Ben Chandler, former Congressman Ken Lucas, State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, Secretary of State John Y. Brown, or Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives Jody Richards.

Don't think Chuck Schumer isn't salivating over the possibility of knocking out the Senate Minority Leader, but this race will remain a dark horse until we see who wins the gubernatorial election in November.

A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

KY Gov- Is That A Knife in Ernie Fletcher's Back?

Kentucky's Republican Lieutenant Governor Steve Pierce has NOT endorsed his boss, Governor Ernie Fletcher for reelection this year. Instead, he has decided to endorse former US Representative Anne Northup (R-Louisville) who is running in the primary against the embattled scandal-marred Governor.

Why is this so interesting? Well, Kentucky's Governor and Lieutenant Governor are elected together on a ticket, like the President and Vice President. (This is how it's done here in New York.) That means the man who ran as the running mate of Ernie Fletcher in 2003 is NOT endorsing him for reelection...big deal.

A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll showed the race for the GOP nod tied 39%-39%.

Northup is considered the stronger GOP candidate, as Fletcher is unpopular and Northup represented the state's Democratic stronghold (Louisville) in the US House of Representatives until her narrow defeat to Democrat John Yarmuth in last year's GOP slaughter. Northup could run away with a general election if she received the same percentage in her old district that she won in 2006. (48%)

On the Democratic side, a recent poll done by WKYT-TV shows former Lieutenant Govenror and Attorney General Steve Beshear leading a crowded pack of Dems. His strength may also be due to the presence of his running mate; State Senator Dan Mongiardo, who very nearly ousted US Senator Jim Bunning in 2004.