IL-14: Hastert Resigns...Now

Dennis Hastert's two decade service in the United States House of Representatives which culminated in being the longest serving Republican Speaker of the House came to abrupt end tonight.

The Illinois Republican, who was expected to leave the House soon, resigned effective tonight. His seat will be filled by a special election that will be called by Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich, likely to be held on February 5th to coincide with the Democratic primary in Illinois.

What is that important? Well, Illinois' favorite son, Barack Obama, is running on the Democratic side, and turnout will be huge in Illinois on the Democratic side and it will help the Democratic nominee for the seat.

The district is R+4. George W. Bush won 55% of the vote here. It streches from the Chicago suburbs of Elgin and Aurora through a long swath of Northern Illinios including Dixon to the outskirts of the Quad Cities near the Mississippi River.

Democrat John Laesch won 40% of the vote in 2006 and is running for the open seat, as are Republican State Senator Chris Lauzen of Aurora, who lost the race for Illinois Comptroller in 1998, Republican Mayor Kevin Burns of Geneva, and Republican businessman and former statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, who has run in the GOP primaries for Governor in 2006 and Senator in 2002 and 2004. Democratic candidates include Laesch, attorney Jotham Stein or businessman Bill Foster.

Hastert's depature leaves three Republican seats open, including the open seats og Ohio-5 and Virginia-1, left open by the deaths of Paul Gilmor in September and Jo Ann Davis in October. Both seats are holding special elections on December 11. Republicans currently have 199 members in the House of Representatives, the first time their number has dropped below 200 since 1994. All 233 Democratic seats are filled, but Julia Carson of Indiana is being treated for terminal cancer and is absent from Washington.

Louisiana Governor-elect Bobby Jindal will vacate his seat in January, meaning the GOP will not have a full 202 seats until at least February.

Debate Open Thread

No, I didn't watch it

Well, I watched a piece of it...I like Wolf Blitzer, but he seems to think he's doing a simultaneous interview on The Situation Room instead of moderating a debate.

Clinton bounced back, although I don't think she did that bad last time minus the immigration question. I don't think any of these guys can debate, which scares me when they're up against the bloodthristy bastards on the GOP side. I feel like Giuliani will tear these guys apart and the idiot population will buy his crap.

I'm worried.

IL-14: Hastert Resigning, Really This Time

He will step down at some point this year.
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid his colleagues farewell in a final speech Thursday, expressing worry about the "breakdown of civility" in politics.
Funny, considering it was under his Speakership that the breakdown in civility began.

Hastert's resignation will trigger a Special Election, perhaps the most contentious one so far in the 110th Congress. (MA-05 was pretty contentious, but to me, it was never a question who would win, it was just by how much).

Hastert's seat was considered a potential Demcoratic pickup in 2008. If Hastert is gone by January 1st, Governor Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, may schedule a special election for the seat on February 5th, the same day as the Democratic primary, which may bring out a slew of Democratic voters who are out for Obama, their native son, increasing the chances of a Democratic pickup.

HOWEVER

February 5th may just be a primary election day, setting up two candidates for a later general election date, that may favor Republicans.

Hastert may also be delaying retirement due to the fact the GOP already has two vacancies and will soon have a third.

Virginia 1 (Jo Ann Davis) and Ohio 5 (Paul Gilmor) are both open until elections on December 11th and Louisiana 1 (Bobby Jindal) will be open soon because Jindal will take the oath of office as Louisiana's new governor.

Polls vs. Mood

Conventional wisdom points to an inevitable Clinton vs. Giuliani race, which seems to lean ever so slightly to Hillary, but when you feel the true pulse of America, it's hard to find anyone who is truly behind one of the other.

I've heard many times in conversations with family and friends that a vote for one is against the other "Giuliani's a fascist, so I'll have to vote for Clinton" or "Clinton is wishy-washy, so I'll have to vote to Giuliani, even though he's just like Bush"

Why not vote for either? This election is a year from being over, and a lot can happen in a year. Remember, if you will, of the inevitability of Edmund Muskie in 1972, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Howard Dean in 2004.

Andrew Sullivan feels the pulse of America;

There are only two candidates who effectively respond to this desire for change of direction abroad and repair at home. They are Barack Obama for the Democrats and Ron Paul for the Republicans. The voters most engaged with this campaign so far - as measured by fundraising and enthusiasm - are clearly favoring these two change agents.

An Obama-Paul race, which in my opinion leans heavily to Obama, would truly be an indication of a united America wanted something different than what it's been fed for the last decade or so. (I'm including Clinton's years in that as well) These two candidates have hit on the idea that America needs to do a 180 and fast the most. Obama's excellent fundraising and Paul's one-day fundraising marathon yesterday indicates to me that there is plenty of support for these two underdogs out there in their respective parties. Doesn't it seem odd that the one major point these two people agree on is that we need a less aggressive and more responsible foreign policy? Will they win the primaries? I think it's unlikely, but they sure can make the eventual nominees sweat a bit. Perhaps those polls that make Clinton and Giuliani seem evitable aren't really touching the pulse of America. Perhaps we're in for a surprise come the New Year.

Despite this, I still say we're looking at a Clinton vs. Romney race out there.

God Is Not On The Ballot

I'm tired of watching politicians on both sides of the political aisle pander to churches to get elected. I'm tired of hearing candidates talk about their relationship with God, like it's the end all be all for a politician today.

Senator Obama belongs to the political party that defends (or is supposed to anyway) the separation of church and state Thomas Jefferson, our first Democratic President, so greatly promoted. Democrats and Libertarians have been vilified for too long recently, being called Godless and wicked because they refuse to give in to Christian fundamentalists who wish to turn the United States, the very nation that championed the secular state, into the Jesus-obsessing equivalent of the Middle East.

We live in a secular country with a secular government. I'm proud of that. I'm proud of the fact that I feel we must defend our country from Christian fundamentalists who want to use the Bible to further their hatred, ignorance and bigotry, Christian fundamentalists who want to use the pulpit to gain power. Our politicians shouldn't have to have to go to churches and hold "faith rallies" to get people to vote for them. I'm tired of hearing people attack those on the left for "outlawing God." These people are enemies of the America laid out by our founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and even George Washington, who all spoke of Separation of Church and State. In 1797, the Senate unanimously approved and President John Adams supported, the Treaty of Tripoli that ended the Barbary Wars. Article 11 of the treaty reads;

"As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquility, of Mussulmen; and, as the said States never entered into any war, or act of hostility against any Mahometan nation, it is declared by the parties, that no pretext arising from religious opinions, shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries."

Whether or not the Treaty of Tripoli had any major means, there is no doubt that the Government of the United States supported the fact that the United States was not a Christian nation.

Thomas Jefferson, a founding father whom the Christian fundamentalists argue wanted a Christian nation, vehemently defended the Separation of Church and State;

"I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should "make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof," thus building a wall of separation between church and State."

The religiosity of a candidate should not be an issue. Religion has no place in politics. Even Jesus said so when he uttered the words; "Give unto Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's."

Call me a Jesus-hating, Godless, wicked far left wing radical. I don't care. I'm proud of being on the far-left on this issue. If supporting a secular government makes me a radical, then I'm a radical. I know I'm not going to change many minds here. I know all those Christian fundamentalists who continued to try and make this country the United States of Jesus. I'm not an atheist, I'm not out to make everyone else an atheist. I'm not seeking to close churches and ban Christmas or Easter. I'm a spiritual person and I'm OK with my relationship with God. I don't want my religion mixed with and corrupted by politics. I like it just the way it is, thank you.

No wonder we're such big fans of Saudi Arabia. We're like one constitutional amendment away from being their Christian twin.

Mass Govenror Endorses Obama

Governor Deval Patrick (D-Massachusetts), the second African-American to ever be elected governor of a US state has decided to endorse Barack Obama for President.

"As a Democrat, I am proud that the field of Democratic contenders is so strong. Many are friends and colleagues with whom I have worked over the years. But frankly, I believe the importance of this election transcends friendships and party. I believe we need unifying, visionary leadership. I believe we need a president who would level with the American people. I believe we need Barack Obama."

Later on today I will update the endorsements of the Governors

Rudy: Obama, You're No Reagan

Oh and Rudy, neither are you.

From Obama's campaign:

"While Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton do not think we should engage in the type of strong diplomacy practiced by Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy, Obama does," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. "And given the hefty fee that Hugo Chavez's oil company paid Rudy Giuliani's firm, he apparently thinks we shouldn't talk to Chavez, but it's fine to take his money."

He aims, he shoots, direct hit.

Clinton Dominates In FLOHPA

Hillary Clinton is leading Rudy Giuliani in the ever important FLOHPA states. (FLorida, OHio, PennsylvaniA)

Quinnipiac University polls find Hillary Clinton leads Giuliani in Florida by 3%,; 46%-43%.
Clinton leads Giuliani in Ohio by 6%; 46%-40%
Clinton leads Giuliani in Pennsylvania by 6%; 48%-42%

Most surprising, Hillary Clinton has a deep and solid voting bloc; 74% of her supports in Ohio say they are unlikely or not likely at all to change their minds. That number is 59% in Florida and 56% in Pennsylvania.

What interest me the most in this poll? Giuliani only narrowly beats Obama in Pennsylvania and Florida, is essentially tied with Edwards in Pennsylvana and Florida and loses to everyone in Ohio.

If the FLOPHA goes Democratic next year, the Republicans can't possibly hold the White House.

Ron Paul's Fundraising Surprise

Texas Congressman Ron Paul's campaign for the GOP Presidential nomination scored a huge success when they announced they raised $5 million this quarter.

Paul raised five times more money than former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who was considered a serious contender, and raised nearly the same as top-tiered candidate Senator John McCain.

Still, Paul's $5 million is much lower than the top two Democrats; Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who raised $23 million and $20 million respectively.

Easier To Get In To Get Out

"I think it's hard to project four years from now," said Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the opening moments of a campaign debate in the nation's first primary state.

"It is very difficult to know what we're going to be inheriting," added Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

"I cannot make that commitment," said former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

I think we all need to be resigned to the fact that President Bush got us into something that's not going to be very easy to get out of.

IL-14: Hastert Retiring

The longest Republican House Speaker in history; Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois) became the second Republican congressman from the Land of Lincoln, after Ray LaHood, to announce he will not run for reelection next year.

Hastert is expected to make the announcement on Thursday. He was widely expected to retire after this term after he decided to not to run for Minority Leader after his party's defeat at the polls last November.

Hastert's district, which covers a wide swath of Northern Illinois from the outer Chicago suburbs of Elgin and Aurora all the way to the outskirts of Moline leans Republican, but not out of reach for a strong Democrat. Like LaHood's similarly Republican district, Democrats are expected to make a strong run for his district, especially with the possibility of a Illinoisan Democrat on top of the ticket.

So far only Republican Jim Oberweis, a strong anti-illegal immigrant advocate, has filed to run for the seat. Oberweis twice ran for the US Senate in Illinois in 2002 and 2004, but lost both times in the primary. He also made an unsuccessful run for Governor in 2006.

Other possible candidates may include Republicans State Senator Chris Lauzen and Kane County Recorder Sandy Wegman as well as Democrats State Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, scientist Bill Foster, and lawyer Jothan Stein. 2006 nominee John Laesch, who held Hastert to 60% of the vote, the lowest since his initial election in 1986 (when he won 52%), is also interested in taking another run at the district.

The two open Illinois seats, as well as the seats of freshman Republican Pete Roskam in the sixth district, Mark Kirk in the Democratic-leaning tenth district and Jerry Weller in the nationally competitive eleventh district may mean Illinois could drown in a Democratic wave next year...no wonder Illinois Democrats are enthusiastically endorsing Obama.

Clinton, Obama Gets Big Endorsements

Hillary Clinton got a big endorsement today...from the Senior Senator of the nation's biggest state.

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California) officially endorsed Clinton, becoming the seventh US Senator and 56th member of Congress to endorse Clinton.

Senator Obama also got a major endorsement out of the most important primary state. Freshman Congressman Paul Hodes (D-New Hampshire) endorsed Obama. Hodes' endorsement will no doubt help Obama in the all important primary state where he has been trailing Clinton by large margins.

Obama has got the endorsement of Rep. Steve Rothman (D-New Jersey). Rothman decided to endorse Obama despite the movement of New Jersey Democrats toward Senator Clinton. So far prominent New Jersey Democrats like Governor Jon Corzine, Senator Bob Menendez and Representatives Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews and Albio Sires have all thrown their support behind the Senator from the state next door.

2008: It's The Dems To loose

Clinton and Obama beat everybody, even the Lord Almighty Rudy Giuliani and especially the Second Coming Fred Thompson. Mitt Romney, who I still believe will get the GOP nod, gets killed by Clinton.

More grim news for the GOP from the latest NYT/CBS poll;

If the 2008 election for President were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?

Democratic: 47%
Republican: 32%

In general, is your opinion of the Republican party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable: 38%
Unfavorable: 56%

In general, is your opinion of the Democratic party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 41%

Bush's approval rating is 29%, his approval on Iraq; 25%.

Presidential Race: All Over The Place

The common consensus seems to point to a Clinton vs. Giuliani race as they are the frontrunners, right?

wrong?

When you look at the race state by state...It's all over the map...literally.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards has consistently held a small lead in the first caucus state of Iowa, Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, Barack Obama has opened out in front in South Carolina and Bill Richardson is looking to pull off an upset in Nevada.

On the GOP side, John McCain appears to be doing well in Iowa...and only Iowa, Mitt Romney has staged a surge in New Hampshire, Fred Thompson, assuming he's running, is out in front in South Carolina, while Giuliani still holds a lead in Florida.

Although Iowa, New Hampshire, and the rest are early, they don't mean everything in this race. In 1992, Tom Harkin won Iowa and Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire and Bill Clinton ended up winning. Steve Forbes came in second in Iowa in the GOP race in 2000.

However, with the primary season altered completely this year, there is little chance for a candidate blown away in the early states to resurge as a certain former Arkansas Governor did in 1992.

Still, it's far from a certain Hillary vs. Rudy race.

Spielberg Endorses Clinton

Despite hinting at endorsing Barack Obama.

says the big shot movie director;

"I've taken the time to familiarize myself with the impressive field of Democratic candidates and am convinced that Hillary Clinton is the most qualified candidate to lead us from her first day in the White House,"

Democratic Debate Part Deux

The Second Democratic Debate on CNN in New Hampshire didn't surprise me at all. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts on what I saw;

-Hillary Clinton drives me crazy. I'm scared of her blowing the election for the Democrats. I think she's too polarizing to be the Democratic standard bearer. Yet, everytime she gets up there, she sounds so presidential. She doesn't hurt herself at all. Occasionally, she even helps. She makes me think; "You know, if you weren't Hillary Clinton, you'd be running away with this."

Still, there is something that tickles me wrong about her, but I like her more as a candidate than I did when she announced.

-Obama did well tonight. Again, if he was the second term Governor of Illinois, he'd be running away with this, no matter what his race.

-Edward's Iraq rant annoyed me a bit. He voted aye on the war resolution and did not read the report, yeld scolded Clinton for doing the same thing and not apologzing. I'm glad he apologized, but it doesn't make it ok to scold those who didn't.

-Biden showed his expertise, especially on foreign policy. To be honest, I think he'd make a good VP now

-Richardson got off to a slow start and never recovered. I don't think he hurt himself, but he sure didn't help. I love Bill, but I'm tired of hearing "As Governor of New Mexico..." We know you're Governor of New Mexico, thanks.

Frontrunners in Third

A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll for the Democratic and Republican caucuses put John Edwards and Mitt Romney on top of their respective party's caucuses.

Edwards leads by six over second placer Barack Obama, followed closely behind by Hillary Clinton; 29%-23%-21%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is at 10%

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney leads the pack with 30%, while John McCain follows far behind at 18%. Rudy Giuliani is in THIRD with 17%.

Giuliani and Clinton are supposedly the front runners, both in third according to this poll.

Clinton, Obama Support Cutoff Date

Both top Democratic Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both have signed on to support a bill cutting off all funds for the Iraq war after March 31, 2008.

A risky move if you ask me. Either one of them could be the nominee and the GOP an attack them for the chaos that will ensue after that date.

It is, after all, the only way Congress can stop the war. You want to war to end, you want Congress to do it, then funds need to be cut. That's the only way they can do it. It's not a fun way, it's not anything to celebrate about, but that's how the war ends

Governors' Endorsements

A list of Presidential candidates and the Governors who have endorsed them;

DEMOCRATS;

Hillary Rodham Clinton;
Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D-New York)
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-Maryland)
Gov. Jon Corzine (D-New Jersey)

Barack Obama;
Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-Illinois)
Gov. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia)

Bill Richardson;
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico) Well obviously

REPUBLICANS

John McCain;
Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-Indiana)
Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-Utah)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minnesota)

Mike Huckabee;
Gov. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota)

Mitt Romney;
Gov. Matt Blunt (R-Missouri)
Gov. Don Carcieri (R-Rhode Island)

Spitzer Endorses Clinton

Really, this shouldn't be a big shock.

The powerful Governor of New York endorses the power Senator from New York for President.

Clinton has the support of nearly every elected Democrat in New York State, including Senator Chuck Schumer, Representatives Tim Bishop, Steve Israel, Gregory Meeks, Gary Ackerman, Joseph Crowley, Jerrold Nadler, Nydia Velasquez, Carolyn Maloney, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowrey, John Hall, Kirsten Gillibrand, Maurice Hinchey, Mike Arcuri, and Brian Higgins, and numerous state and local Democrats.

One Democrat from New York not endorsing Clinton, State Senator Bill Perkins (D-Harlem) who holds Lt. Governor David Paterson's old State Senate seat, has endorsed Barack Obama.

UPDATE: Hillary received the endorsement of another new Democratic governor, Martin O'Malley (D-Maryland).