NM-Sen: Udall Is Running

US Representative Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) is officially running for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici

Udall had originally decided not to run, but has since changed his mind. Udall has polled stronger than any other New Mexico Democrat, minus Governor Richardson.

Udall represents Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe and Taos and part of Eastern New Mexico, includin Clovis, in the House. He is the son of Stewart Udall, former Arizona congressman and Secretary of the Interior during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and the nephew of Mo Udall, Stewart's brother who also was an Arizona congressman and a Presidential candidate in 1976.

Udall's candidancy means all three members of the New Mexico House delegation are running. Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are also running. Udall has polled over Wilson and Pearce in the double digits in recent polling.

Udall is less certain than Mark Warner in Virginia, but more certain than his cousin, Mark Udall in neighboring Colorado. He's about the same as Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. I predict all four will likely be Senators in the 111th Congress.

Lean Democrat.

VA-Sen: Warner, Mark Still Dominates

Even without Tom Davis in the race;

Survey USA;

Warner, Mark (D)- 57%
Gilmore (R)- 35%

Likely Democrat

Virginia Picks Convention

The Virginia GOP has decided to pick it's nominee for John Warner's open Senate seat by convention next year rather than primary.

Two Republicans, conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore and moderate Fairfax County Congressman Tom Davis, are considering running for the Senate seat. Both are trailing to assumed Democratic nominee former Governor Mark Warner by nearly 30% in recent polls. A convention would avoid a bloody primary fight which can weaken the eventual nominee.

A convention favors conservatives and thus favors Gilmore. It could mean Tom Davis may not even make a bid for the Senate seat (and instead take on Jim Webb in 2012.) If he runs, his open House seat becomes a top Democratic target. If he doesn't run, Democrats would have a harder (although not impossible) time taking his House seat.

VA-Sen: Warner, Mark Way Ahead

Survey USA confirms it;

Jim Gilmore (R) 32%
Warner (D) 60%

Tom Davis (R) 27%
Warner (D) 62%

George Allen (R) 37%
Warner (D) 56%

I've heard some argue that George Allen was way ahead of Jim Webb at this point, but Allen was an incumbent and even I didn't know who the hell Webb was.

Still, it's an open seat in a historically, albeit reformed, Red State. Funny, I thought New Hampshire was the best sure thing for the Democrats next year; Likely Democrat

Warner, Mark In

His website is up.

I'm sure new polls will be coming out soon on this race, but because of recent polling from Rasmussen has Warner so far up, I'm starting this off at Lean Democrat.

Can The Dems Get 60 Seats?

It's possible.

Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;

Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).

That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.

And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.

That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.

VA-Sen: Warner, Mark would bury GOP

Former Governor Mark Warner isn't in yet, but should he decide to enter the open Virginia Senate race, it would quickly surpass New Hampshire as the most likely Democratic pickup according to recent polling by Rasmussen;

Warner defeats former Governor Jim Gilmore 54%-34% and trounces Congressman Tom Davis 57%-30%.

Because of Davis' weakness, even without Mark Warner in the race, I now list this as a Tossup

VA-Sen: Warner, John out

An open Virginia seat is top tier. Republican Tom Davis will make it a race, but former Governor Mark Warner would beat him. Then there's Jim Gilmore. The Democratic Presidential candidate should do better in Virginia that others in the past. I'd call this one a Tossup

2008 Senate Races- GOP First Glance

REPUBLICANS

Alabama- As soon as State Agriculture Ron Sparks passed on the race, Jeff Sessions was set. Solid Republican

Alaska- Under an ethics cloud, Ted Stevens, a Senator for 40 years, once third in line to the Presidency and the man Alaska's largest airport was named after may retire at the end of his term to avoid defeat. Although even then it may take a powerful Democrat to knock this guy out. They named the damn airport after him. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich would be the strongest nominee, but he may be interested in running for his father's old seat; Alaska's at-large Congressional seat. State Representative Eric Croft and former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz are also possibilities. Republicans would have an easier time defending an open seat, but with Begich as the nominee, this may become much like Colorado. Slight Lean Republican

Colorado- Wayne Allard or not, Republicans would've had a hard time either way keeping this seat. Colorado has quickly become a swing state; a strong liberal base around Denver and Boulder evening out the ultra conservatives in Colorado Springs. Democrats won the other Senate seat in 2004 and the Governor's race in a mini-landslide in 2006. More impressive, John Kerry received 47% of the vote in Colorado, the highest margin for a Democrat here since 1964. Congressman Mark Udall is the Democratic nominee, Republican Bob Schaffer, the GOP's third choice, is probably going to be the Republican nominee. Udall is a slight favorite, but this state hasn't trended fully blue yet. Tossup

Georgia- Saxby Chambliss shouldn't be a shoo-in, but he is. Max Cleland should run again, but he won't. Georgia is one of the few states trending Republican right now. Democratic Congressman Sanford Bishop or Jim Marshall, both moderate enough to appeal to Georgia voters, can make this a race. Solid Republican

Idaho- I'd say Larry Craig would be safe, but Jerry Brady's shocking 44% against Idaho's most popular Republican in last year's governor's race intrigues me. I don't think it's too long until Idaho becomes more competitive for the Democrats. It probably won't be next year, but Democrat Larry LaRocco's entry into the race is enough to make some Republicans sweat a little. Favors Republican

Kansas- Governor Kathleen Sebelius is not running…yet, and until she does, whatever Republican running is safe. Pat Roberts is 2008's shoo-in. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in Kansas since the 1930's. Solid Republican

Kentucky- Democratic Attorney General Greg Stumbo can make this a race, and he'll likely run against the Republican floor leader. Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler would turn this race into a tossup. Democrats will probably look to avenge Tom Daschle's 2004 defeat and if the Democrats won the governor's race in November, they're going to pour a massive amount of money into this race. Lean Republican

Maine- It's hard for me to accept that Susan Collins is vulnerable, but then I remember Collins is not Olympia Snowe. Tom Allen is the only Democrat who can make it a race and he's in. If Collins wins, she wins with under 55%, and I think she will. Slight Lean Republican

Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar's unexpected landslide win put the brakes on Minnesota's GOP trend. Coleman may be helped by the RNC being held in his state, but Minnesota is not exactly welcoming territory for the GOP right now. It's hard to imagine a Senator Al Franken, but this is the same state that elected Jesse Ventura governor. Slight Lean Republican

Mississippi- The only safe Republicans are those in the deep south. Unless Thad Cochran retires, there is no race here and retirement looks unlikely. The GOP standard-bearer is Congressman Chip Pickering, who is also retiring. Solid Republican

Nebraska- The Cornhusker State is all over the place next year. Chuck Hagel's anti-war stance has brought great annoyance to the pro-war Nebraska Republican Party and he is being challenged in the GOP primary by Attorney General Jon Bruning. No Democrat has entered the race yet, but Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey are contemplating a race. Either one would make this a tough race for Bruning, who will likely beat Hagel if he runs again. Slight Lean Republican

New Hampshire- John Sununu is the Rick Santorum of 2008. Santorum would've been defeated by any Democrat last year, but Bob Casey was the one who made it a sure thing for the Democrats. Jeanne Shaheen is this year's Bob Casey. Sununu is going to lose either way, Katrina Swett or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand will win, narrowly, but Shaheen make this Lean Democrat. Tossup

New Mexico- See Alaska. Could there be too Senator Udalls in the 111^th Congress? Lean Republican

North Carolina- Democrats needed Governor Mike Easley, they didn't get him. They needed Congressman Brad Miller, they didn't get him. Still, Dole is vulnerable to almost any viable challenger. Democratic State Representative Grier Martin is their next top choice. He's not running yet. Lean Republican

Oklahoma- Inhofe should be safe, but Democratic State Senator Andrew Rice excited progressives when he announced he's run against Mr. "Global warming is a hoax and I'm proud my family has no gays." I don't think Inhofe will lose, unfortunately, but Rice will show that even progressives are competitive in Oklahoma. Favors Republican

Oregon- State House Speaker Jeff Merkley is an excellent candidate for the Democrats. Still, Smith was one of the first Republicans to break with Bush on Iraq, and Oregon isn't as Democratic as you might think. Smith may win, but if he does, it will be narrowly. Lean Republican

South Carolina- Lindsey Graham's only race may be in the GOP primary. Like Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, the Bible Belt will prove to be the last GOP stronghold. Solid Republican

Tennessee- Lamar Alexander should be vulnerable, but like the states that surround it to the south, Tennessee's Senior Republican Senator will easily win reelection. Solid Republican

Texas- John Cornyn is very unpopular, but he's still a Republican in a Republican state. Progressive Democrats favor State Rep. Rick Noriega of Houston, while national Democrats seem to be leaning toward the more conservative Mikal Watts. Either way, Cornyn isn't going to win the landslide Kay Bailey Hutchison did in 2006. Hells, he may not win at all. Likely Republican.

Virginia- If John Warner retires, which is likely, this may move all the way to Tossup. Do not underestimate the statewide appeal of Congressman Tom Davis. He's a moderate from very important Northern Virginia. However, if former Governor Jim Gilmore decides to run a primary against Davis and former Governor Mark Warner jumps in on the Democratic side, Virginia may send two Democrats to the Senate in 2009 for the first time since the early 1960's. Lean Republican

Wyoming (Enzi)- Enzi is probably unbeatable minus a challenge from Governor Freudenthal, and even then it may be easier to go for the Junior Senator Solid Republican

Wyoming (Barasso)- Whoever the Democrats get will likely face Barasso. The Democrats' best hope is that Freudenthal runs for one seat, while Gary Trauner runs for the other. Likely Republican

NE-Sen, VA-Sen: Mass Retirement?

Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska) was one of the first Republicans to hint at running for President in 2008. He brought up the possibility at the Republican National Convention in 2004, before Bush even won reelection.

Now, Hagel may not even be in the Senate at the start of the next President's turn.

Hagel, who was one of the first Republicans to break with Bush on Iraq, may retire altogether instead of running for reelection next year, where he faces a tough primary challenge agains the pro-war Joe Bruning, Nebraska's Attorney General.

Robert Novak says this;

"Hagel must decide what to do in 2008: to run for president, to run for Senate re-election or to get out of politics. The betting in the Senate Republican cloakroom is that he will retire, but Hagel has given no signal of his intentions and tells friends that he has yet to make a decision."

Democrats don't have a candidate yet, but likely will if Hagel decides to retire. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, former Senator Bob Kerrey, and 2006 3rd District House candidate Scott Kleeb, who got 45% in a district that went over 70% for Bush, are all possible Democratic nominees. Either way, a Hagel retirement would add Nebraska to the list of potentially vulnerable seats for the GOP.

Also likely to be on that list is Virginia, where 80 year-old John Warner looks to be preparing to retire. In a state where Democrats have taken two straight top statewide races in two years, an open seat would be gold in another Democratic year, especially if they get the other Warner to run, former Governor Mike Warner, who gave the Republican Warner his only difficult run for reelection in 1996.

Again, Robert Novak;

"The state's GOP leaders not long ago were sure that 80-year-old Republican Sen. John Warner would seek a sixth term in 2008, but now they think he probably will not. That would open the door for Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner (no relation) to enter the race. Any Republican would be an underdog against the Democratic Warner."

Republicans are likely to nominate the moderate Congressman Tom Davis of Fairfax County, who represents a district the Democrats would certainly have to win to win the seat. Webb got 53% in Davis' district last year. Davis, however, may be too moderate for the conservative Virginia GOP and conservatives may force an inconvienent primary challenge against Davis. His House seat, however, is likely to go to the Democrats.

Remember that Republicans are already having a hard time holding on to their open seat in Colorado.

VA-Sen, VA-11: The Tom Davis Question

Democrats have a great chance at a big victory in Virginia, one way or another.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that Sen. John Warner (R-Virginia) is on the verge of retirement. After winning back to back statewide elections for Governor and Senator in 2005 and 2006, an open Senate seat in what very well may be a swing state in a Democratic year is gold for the Democratic Party.

The top Republican candidate would have to be somebody who can hold his base and win over the moderate independents in Virginia who always tended to lean slightly toward the Republicans.

Enter Rep. Tom Davis, the moderate Republican representing Fairfax and Prince William Counties in the Washington DC suburbs. Davis is perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Virginia delegation. In fact, he may well sit slightly to the left of Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher from the panhandle region. Davis is the most likely choice for Warner's Senate seat and would be a formidable Republican candidate statewide, especially since the Democrats don't really have a statewide candidate sans Mark Warner, who nearly won the seat in 1996. Davis could also have the chance of carrying his own House district in a Senate race, which a Democrat would need to carry to win statewide.

Still, a Davis candidacy for the Senate leaves his very competitive 11th district seat open. The Virginia 11th only narrowly voted for Bush by 2,000 votes out of 323,000 cast. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006 both carried the district by fairly wide margins. The district is about as Republicans as the Arizona 8 or New York 24, both of which went to the Democratic candidates by fairly wide margins in 2006. Democrats only hold three of the eleven House seats in Virginia, despite their growing power in the state. Davis' seat would be a top pickup opportunity.

VA-Sen: $500 Race?

Senator John Warner (R-Virginia) only raised $500 for his reelection campaign this quarter.

Yes, you heard me right, $500.

Could this mean that the former Armed Services Committee chairman and husband of Elizabeth Taylor is about ready to retire and open a very competitive seat where the Democrats have won two major statewide races in as many years?

Let the Mark Warner rumors begin. Democrats should begin prepping not only for a race for Senate, but for a race for Tom Davis' suburban Washington House seat, as he would be the most likely GOP candidate for Senate should Warner, John retire.

VA-Sen: Mark vs. John

It would be a campaign of biblical proportions, and not just because it would be between two guys named after Gospels. A race between Virginia's popular senior Senator, a Warner, and Virginia's popular ex-governor, another Warner, in an increasingly competitive state may be around the corner.

In the last few years, the longtime Republican stronghold has become...well...less of one. Democrats won two major statewide races in the last two years, winning the Governor's race in 2005 and defeating an incumbent GOP Senator in 2006.

If Warner, Mark decides to run for the Senate seat in 2008, it wouldn't be the first time the two Warners faced off against each other in a Senate race. Warner, Mark, then the state Democratic chairman, ran against Warner, John in 1996 and narrowly lost 53-47%, the closest race for Warner, John in his 25 year career in the Senate.

Since then, Warner, Mark has served as Governor and left office with a 75% approval rating in 2005. He was considered a strong potential candidate for US Senate in 2006 and for President, but decided against both.

The other interesting note about next year's Senate race is the possibility of Warner, John's retirement. Warner, John has been in the US Senate since 1979, when he was still married to Elizabeth Tsylor (yes, this actress.) He's 80 years old and has been mulling retirement for a while. If he retires, the Republicans have already made it known they want to nominate Congressman Tom Davis of Vienna, a moderate to liberal Republican. Davis' district in Northern Virginia is very competitive. it was Kerry's third best district in Virginia (and best among any held by a Republican in the state.) Democrats Tim Kaine and Jim Webb both won the district in 2005 and 2006 respectively. If Davis vacates his seat, expect it to be a top pickup opportunity for the Democrats (although expect a run by Davis' wife, State Senate Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis,) while the Senate race may also provide the Democrats with a pickup as conservatives like Warner, Mark more than the moderate Republican Davis.

Either way, except a Mark Warner to campaign to, at the very least, force Republicans to pour alot of money in Virginia...again.