2008 Senate Races- Democrats First Glance

DEMOCRATS

Arkansas- The only way this becomes a race is if Mike Huckabee drops out of the Presidential race and runs against Pryor. After his second place finish in the Iowa straw poll, the former Governor is licking his chops and probably looking for a VP slot. Pryor has little to worry about other than Huckabee. Democrats hold every statewide office and three of the four House seats. Favors Democrat

Delaware- Even if Joe Biden does get the Democratic nod, whoever runs in his place will win on his coattails, and even if Biden retires, unless Mike Castle runs for the seat, it will likely stay in Democratic hands. Biden will probably run though. Solid Democrat

Illinois- Durbin is probably the safest Senator up next year. Solid Democrat

Iowa- Tom Harkin has always weathered strong opposition and managed to pull out victories. His three opponents in his three reelection campaigns have all been popular Republican Congressmen from various parts of the state. He may face another again; Tom Latham or Steve King. If he can beat Jim Ross Lightfoot and Tom Tauke, he could beat Latham or King in a Democratic year. Favors Democrat

Louisiana- This should be an easy pickup for the Republicans, but the state's GOP House delegation have all passed on the race. Bobby Jindal is running for, and will probably be, governor, while Richard Baker, Jim McCrery, Rodney Alexander and Charles Boustany are all running for reelection to their House seats. Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy is being recruited to change parties and run, but he denies that he will. Unless Secretary of State Jay Dardenne gets into the race, Landrieu will be able to keep her seat…and if she does, it will be on pure luck. Slight Lean Democrat

Massachusetts- The people of the Bay State may be a little peeved at their junior Senator, but they're not going to replace him with a Republican. Solid Democrat

Michigan- This should be a race, but nobody is running. Rep. Candice Miller is probably waiting to run for Debbie Stabenow's seat in 2012. If Stabenow couldn't be beat, the chair of the Armed Services Committee sure can't. Solid Democrat

Montana- After Conrad Burns' loss last year, Republicans want to defeat Max Baucus. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is not running. The only candidate is former State House Majority Leader Michael Lange. Baucus is going to be helped by the reelection of popular Governor Brian Schweitzer. Favors Democrat

New Jersey- If the GOP couldn't defeat Bob Menendez, and that wasn't even close, they can't beat Frank Lautenberg or whichever Democrat decides to replace him. The Garden State is out of reach for the GOP right now. Favors Democrat

Rhode Island- The second coming of Lincoln Chafee couldn't beat Jack Reed. Go ahead, Governor Carcieri, give it a try, amuse us. Solid Democrat

South Dakota- Tim Johnson's illness may actually be a blessing in disguise (if that's possible.) Governor Mike Rounds would've defeated him, he's not running now. Johnson should win a close race, but if he were to retire, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would win a close race. Lean Democrat

West Virginia- Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito or Secretary of State Betty Ireland, other than that, Rockefeller is going to cruise for reelection. Capito would be the strongest candidate, but her House seat is shaky. Interesting note; her father defeated Rockefeller for Governor in 1972 and lost to him for the same office in 1980. Solid Democrat

A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

Third Senator Wants Gonzales Gone

Senator Mark Pryor (D-Arkansas) called for Gonzales' resignation or firing today;

"When an attorney general lies to a United States senator, I think it is time for that attorney general to go. He did not only lie to me as a person, but when he lied to me, he lied to the Senate and to the people I represent."

Pryor joins Senators Chuck Schumer (D-New York) and John Sununu (R-New Hampshire) in calling for Gonzales to leave his post.

In other Pryor news today; he sided with the Republicans on the Iraq bill, along with Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) and Joe Lieberman (I don't even know anymore-Connecticut)