NM-Sen: Udall Is Running

US Representative Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) is officially running for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici

Udall had originally decided not to run, but has since changed his mind. Udall has polled stronger than any other New Mexico Democrat, minus Governor Richardson.

Udall represents Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe and Taos and part of Eastern New Mexico, includin Clovis, in the House. He is the son of Stewart Udall, former Arizona congressman and Secretary of the Interior during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and the nephew of Mo Udall, Stewart's brother who also was an Arizona congressman and a Presidential candidate in 1976.

Udall's candidancy means all three members of the New Mexico House delegation are running. Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are also running. Udall has polled over Wilson and Pearce in the double digits in recent polling.

Udall is less certain than Mark Warner in Virginia, but more certain than his cousin, Mark Udall in neighboring Colorado. He's about the same as Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. I predict all four will likely be Senators in the 111th Congress.

Lean Democrat.

NH-Sen: Shaheen Holds Lead

Survey USA:

Shaheen (D)- 53%
Sununu (R)- 42%

Lean Democrat

NH-Sen: Shaheen Way Ahead

Rasmussen had the race within five a month ago.

CNN/WMUR has her up 16- 54%-38%

Lean Democrat

NH-Sen: Shaheen Is In

The Union Leader just broke with it;

Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, the New Hampshire Union Leader has learned. The Democratic former three-term chief executive is expected to issue a statement today addressing her political plans. While it's unclear exactly how the statement will be phrased, sources say Shaheen has decided to seek the seat held by Republican John E. Sununu, who defeated her in a bitter 2002 contest.

Shaheen has been kicking Sununu's butt in polling. Lean Democrat.

Can The Dems Get 60 Seats?

It's possible.

Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;

Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).

That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.

And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.

That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.

MN-Sen: Coleman in Trouble?

I have to say, I'm still quite shocked at the idea that Al Franken is only down by seven in Minnesota.

Amazing to me, Coleman does really well against all three candidates among young voters. Does Minnesota buck a trend that has been seen all over the country? Is do young people just not know who Al Franken is?

Either way, Minnesota still is in the top five most vulnerable GOP seats, along with New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon and Colorado.

NH-Sen: Sununu Is Santorum

Sununu is being blown away in New Hampshire.

Even if Shaheen doesn't get into the race...Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand is only four points down, as is Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey is down 16, but his name recognition is nearly zero in New Hampshire.

My prediction is Shaheen will get into the race and santorum Sununu, perhaps worse.

NH-Sen: Shaheen Would Crush Sununu

If only she would enter the race.

Shaheen (D)- 56%
Sununu (R)- 34%

Talk about buyer's remorse

Sununu leads all other challengers, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, activist Katrina Swett, and Jay Buckey, but he's under 50% against all three.

Sununu may very well be the Santorum of 2008 after all.

NH Sen: Shaheen to Run?

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen has previously stated she would not seek the Democratic nomination for US Senate against Republican incumbent John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her in 2002...has she gone back on her word?

Word is she's set to decide in September on whether or not she'll join the race. Recent polls show her with a comfortable lead over Sununu in a general election.

Currently, Mayor Steve Marchand of Portsmouth, and Katrina Swett, wife of former New Hampshire Congressman Dick Swett and daughter of California Congressman Tom Lantos are in the race for the Democratic nod. Marchand stated he would drop out in favor of Shaheen should she run.

If Shaheen does run, New Hampshire jumps to the top of the pickup list. Sununu will become the Santorum of 2008.

New Hampshire, along with Colorado's open seat, Maine, Minnesota and possibly Oregon, Nebraska (former Senator Bob Kerrey may run for the seat should Hagel decide not to run again), and Virginia (What if John Warner retires?) may make it nearly impossible for Republicans to win back the Senate majority they so narrowly lost last year.

Stem Cell Bill Passes Senate

The vote was 63-34 with 3 members not voting, all Democrats.

49 of the 51 Democrats/Independents voted for the bill, Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) and Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pennsylvania) voted against.

The bill also got the support of 17 of the 49 Republicans (Those up for reelection in '08 in bold);
Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
Robert Bennett (R-Utah)
Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)
Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
Susan Collins (R-Maine)
Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire)
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
John McCain (R-Arizona)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Gordon Smith (R-Oregon)
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)
Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
John Warner (R-Virginia)

Noticeable dissenters include, most surprisingly John Sununu (R-New Hampshire,) who, as I mentioned earlier, is being heavily targeted in 2008. Interestingly, he voted nay, but Senator Gregg, the more conservative of the two Granite State Senators voted Aye. Sununu was the ONLY Northeast Senator to vote nay. The most northeastern state where a Senator voted nay other than New Hampshire was Ohio where George Voinovich voted nay. Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota), Elizabeth Dole (R-North Carolina) and Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) also all voted nay.

Aside from Casey, all other freshman Democrats voted aye, including Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri) who narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent in a race where stem-cell research was key. (Her margin of victory was nearly the same as the referendum that allowed stem-cell research in her state.)

If the three Democrats who did not vote; Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut), Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) and, of course, Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), all voted aye, the vote would've been 66-34, just one shy of enough to override a Presidential veto. They all voted aye the last time it came up for a vote last year.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Senate override a Presidential veto? The House won't, but wouldn't it be fun to see the Senate do it? It'll show exactly how out of touch the President is with the population on this subject. Sununu would become the deciding vote if the roll call does not change when the vote to override occurs.

Democrats should hit him now, and hard.

NH-Sen: Democratic Leaders Pressure Shaheen

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire), met with DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to consider running a repeat race against Senator John Sununu (R-New Hampshire.)

Sununu, considered the most vulnerable Republican running in 2008, has been trailing in a potential race against Shaheen, whom he defeated by a narrow margin in a controversial race in 2002.

Two Democrats are already in the race against Sununu, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchant and Katrina Swett, wife of former Congressman Dick Swett (D-New Hampshire,) and daughter of House International Relations Committe chairman Tom Lantos (D-California.)

Marchant and Swett are good Democrats and good candidates, but Democrats are looking to make Sununu the Santorum of 2008, by running a candidate who will dominate through next November, like Bob Casey did in Pennsylvania. With Governor Lynch out, Shaheen is that candidate

NH-Sen; Where Is Shaheen When You Need Her?

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) narrowly lost the 2002 Senate race to Republican John Sununu. A new ARG poll she would win a second try next year.

Shaheen's 2002 loss was controversial as the GOP jammed Democratic GOTV phone lines on Election Day, and have since been punished for it. Shaheen has not said whether or not she would run again.

The ARG poll shows her ahead by 10, winning almost all New Hampshire Democrats, a third of the important unaffiliated voters and even 17% of Republicans.

Sununu is considered the most vulnerable GOP incumbent of 2008. So far two Democrats are in the race, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchant and Katrina Swett, wife of former Congressman Dick Swett and daughter of current Congressman Tom Lantos (D-California).

No polls have been released putting Sununu up against Marchant or Swett.

A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

Sununu: Fire Gonzales, Not Me

Well, looks like Senator John Sununu (R-New Hampshire) has finally decided to try and save his skin by asking for the firing of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales over the attorney firing scandal.

Sununu is perhaps the most vulnerable Senator in 2008. He won 51%-48% in a controversial campaign against Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2002, a Republican year, and he was the only vulnerable Republican to vote in favor of the troop surge.

So far Sununu has yielded two Democratic challengers. Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchant and Katrina Swett, the wife of former Democratic congerssman Dick Swett of New Hampshire and the daughter of Congressman Tom Lantos (D-California). Last year Republicans were slaughtered in New Hampshire, losing the Governor's race in a 74%-26% landslide, losing control of the Executive Council and the State Legislature for the first time in over a century, and seeing both GOP Congressmen defeated. Sununu must know if he was running for reeleciton in 2006, he would've went down too. I don't know how Marchant and Swett are polling against Sununu, but perhaps Sununu knows and that's why he's decided to come to his senses today.

UPDATE: Here is the text of Sununu's speech