Survey USA;
Coleman (R)- 46%
Franken (D)- 45%
Coleman (R)- 44%
Ciresi (D)- 44%
Coleman is surprisingly weak, and Franken is surprisingly strong. Ciresi doesn't really shock me. Rasmussen's numbers are a little more believable;
Coleman (R)- 49%
Franken (D)- 42%
Coleman (R)- 46%
Ciresi (D)- 43%
Tossup
Throws this seat up in the air.
The Minnesota 3rd District is suburban Minneapolis, but entirely within Hennipen County. Bush won the district 51%-48% and the district has a PVI of R +.05, so it's very competitive. Amy Klobuchar won the district in a landslide in last year's Senate race. A Democrat running for President, running even two points ahead of Kerry, would likely carry this district. Even Hillary Clinton is up by double digits in Minnesota.
MN Publius has some names of potential Democrats and Republicans who may run for the seat.
Republicans only hold three seats in the Minnesota delegation, all of them in the Twin Cities' suburbs, Ramstad's, John Kline's seat in the southern part of the Metro area, and, of course crazzy Christian Michele Bachmann's seat centered around St. Cloud and Anouka.
It's possible.
Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;
Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.
Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).
That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.
And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.
That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.
I have to say, I'm still quite shocked at the idea that Al Franken is only down by seven in Minnesota.
Amazing to me, Coleman does really well against all three candidates among young voters. Does Minnesota buck a trend that has been seen all over the country? Is do young people just not know who Al Franken is?
Either way, Minnesota still is in the top five most vulnerable GOP seats, along with New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon and Colorado.
The vote was 63-34 with 3 members not voting, all Democrats.
49 of the 51 Democrats/Independents voted for the bill, Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) and Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pennsylvania) voted against.
The bill also got the support of 17 of the 49 Republicans (Those up for reelection in '08 in bold);
Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
Robert Bennett (R-Utah)
Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)
Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
Susan Collins (R-Maine)
Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire)
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
John McCain (R-Arizona)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Gordon Smith (R-Oregon)
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)
Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
John Warner (R-Virginia)
Noticeable dissenters include, most surprisingly John Sununu (R-New Hampshire,) who, as I mentioned earlier, is being heavily targeted in 2008. Interestingly, he voted nay, but Senator Gregg, the more conservative of the two Granite State Senators voted Aye. Sununu was the ONLY Northeast Senator to vote nay. The most northeastern state where a Senator voted nay other than New Hampshire was Ohio where George Voinovich voted nay. Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota), Elizabeth Dole (R-North Carolina) and Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) also all voted nay.
Aside from Casey, all other freshman Democrats voted aye, including Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri) who narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent in a race where stem-cell research was key. (Her margin of victory was nearly the same as the referendum that allowed stem-cell research in her state.)
If the three Democrats who did not vote; Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut), Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) and, of course, Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), all voted aye, the vote would've been 66-34, just one shy of enough to override a Presidential veto. They all voted aye the last time it came up for a vote last year.
Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Senate override a Presidential veto? The House won't, but wouldn't it be fun to see the Senate do it? It'll show exactly how out of touch the President is with the population on this subject. Sununu would become the deciding vote if the roll call does not change when the vote to override occurs.
Democrats should hit him now, and hard.
