NM-Sen: Udall Is Running

US Representative Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) is officially running for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici

Udall had originally decided not to run, but has since changed his mind. Udall has polled stronger than any other New Mexico Democrat, minus Governor Richardson.

Udall represents Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe and Taos and part of Eastern New Mexico, includin Clovis, in the House. He is the son of Stewart Udall, former Arizona congressman and Secretary of the Interior during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and the nephew of Mo Udall, Stewart's brother who also was an Arizona congressman and a Presidential candidate in 1976.

Udall's candidancy means all three members of the New Mexico House delegation are running. Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are also running. Udall has polled over Wilson and Pearce in the double digits in recent polling.

Udall is less certain than Mark Warner in Virginia, but more certain than his cousin, Mark Udall in neighboring Colorado. He's about the same as Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. I predict all four will likely be Senators in the 111th Congress.

Lean Democrat.

NM-Sen: Democrats Strong

Survey USA;

Pearce (R)- 43%
Chavez (D)- 48%

Wilson (R)- 44%
Chavez (D)- 48%

Diane Denish holds a similar lead, Bill Richardson a commanding one, neither is running. Survey USA did not poll Tom Udall, but he held huge leads in the previous survey, where Chavez trailed the GOP candidates.

if Udall jumps in the race, then moves to Lean Democrat, but with Chavez, this is a Tossup.

NM-Sen: A Close One

Wilson (R) 33 Richardson (D) 62
Wilson (R) 38 Udall (D) 56
Wilson (R) 48 Chavez (D) 44
Wilson (R) 46 Madrid (D) 45
Pearce (R) 36 Richardson (D) 60
Pearce (R) 56 Chavez (D) 35
Pearce (R) 54 Madrid (D) 38

Interesting that Pearce does better than Wilson statewide, but Udall and Richardson would be the sure wins for this seat.

They also didn't poll Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who is being coerced to run for the seat.

If all things play out the way they're playing out, a Wilson-Madrid race would be the best bet for the Democrats, and that didn't go well last year.

NM-Sen: Wilson In

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.
Domenici has taken Wilson under his wing in recent years, and as he has gotten older, Wilson’s name has topped the list of potential heirs [...]
[S]he also faces the same U.S. Attorney scandal baggage that would have affected Domenici’s reelection campaign. Fired U.S. attorney David Iglesias said both lawmakers pressured him to be more aggressive with his corruption cases during the 2006 campaign.

I doubt Wilson's ability to win statewide, but she does represent a Democratic-leaning district and this is a competitive state and she is widely known.

Then again, she is marred by the Prosecutor Firing Scandal

So, until we know who the Democratic candidate will be, I'll leave this as a Tossup

On the bright side, her New Mexico 1st district seat becomes Slight Lean Democrat

NM-Sen: Domenici Out

This is about the best news possible right now for the Democrats. Domenici is an institution in New Mexico and the only Republican to win an outright majority statewide this decade. His retirement throws this seat into one of the most competitive races in the nation.

The GOP bench is minimal; with only New Mexico's two GOP Representatives, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, being the only formindable candidates. Wilson is marred by her connection to the Prosecutor Firing Scandal and Pearce isn't a major player statewide.

Democrats have a deeper bench including Rep. Tom Udall, Governor Bill Richardson (should he drop out of the Presidential race) former US Attorney John Kelly, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Attorney General Patricia Madrid, and Lt. Governor Diane Denish.

The Democrats have the upper hand, it's their year, all the Democratic Presidential candidates are polling well against the GOP canddiates and they have the better candidates, but because this is one of the top five most political competitive states in the country in my opinion (after Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia) I'd rather this one as a Tossup.

Can The Dems Get 60 Seats?

It's possible.

Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;

Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).

That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.

And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.

That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.

NM-Sen: The Last Days Of Pete Domenici

Senator Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) couldn't be more enravalled into this Alberto Gonzales Prosecutor scandal if he was the Attorney General himself.

This whole scandal really erupted when Senator Domenici admitted to contacting David Iglesias, the fired New Mexico federal prosecutor, about indictments against a Democratic state Senator on corruption charges, but claimed he did not pressure Iglesias or seek his ousting.

He did, apparently, seek his ousting.

As I said in a previous post, Domenici is up for reelection in one of the most volatile swing states in the country. The Republican bench is thin, thanks to Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson's involvment in this scandal.

Democrats should be prepare for the possibility of another open Mountain State Senate seat. I don't see how Domenici runs for reelection with this on his back.

NM-Sen: Is Domenici Out Too?

Senator Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) is under a cloud of scandal after his call to former US Prosecutor David Iglesias, reportedly to pressure him into indicting Democrats to save Rep. Heather Wilson (R-New Mexico) from losing reelection.

Now, he's only raised $393,786 this quarter for his reelection campaign. While Senator Domenici has always won landslide victories in his state and never had to run a hardcore campaign, after his envelopment in the Attorney firings scandal and the anti-GOP sentiment, Domenici may actually need to run a strong race to keep his seat if he's running again, and he can't do it such little money.

Does this mean he's retiring? Quite possibly, and if he does, the GOP is going to have a hell of a time holding this seat. The only candidate who had a chance would be Congresswoman Wilson, who is also a part of the Attorney firings scandal. The next likely choice for the GOP would be Rep. Steve Pearce of Hobbs.

The Democrats, on the other hand, can run Rep. Tom Udall of Santa Fe, Lt. Governor Diane Denish (although she may be holding out for Governor,) former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron, or former Attorney General Patricia Madrid.

New Mexico is a swing state, if there ever was one; it went narrowly for Gore in 2000 and narrowly for Bush in 2004. It reelected it's Democratic Governor and Senator last year by landslide margins.

Stem Cell Bill Passes Senate

The vote was 63-34 with 3 members not voting, all Democrats.

49 of the 51 Democrats/Independents voted for the bill, Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) and Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pennsylvania) voted against.

The bill also got the support of 17 of the 49 Republicans (Those up for reelection in '08 in bold);
Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
Robert Bennett (R-Utah)
Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)
Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
Susan Collins (R-Maine)
Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire)
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
John McCain (R-Arizona)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Gordon Smith (R-Oregon)
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)
Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
John Warner (R-Virginia)

Noticeable dissenters include, most surprisingly John Sununu (R-New Hampshire,) who, as I mentioned earlier, is being heavily targeted in 2008. Interestingly, he voted nay, but Senator Gregg, the more conservative of the two Granite State Senators voted Aye. Sununu was the ONLY Northeast Senator to vote nay. The most northeastern state where a Senator voted nay other than New Hampshire was Ohio where George Voinovich voted nay. Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota), Elizabeth Dole (R-North Carolina) and Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) also all voted nay.

Aside from Casey, all other freshman Democrats voted aye, including Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri) who narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent in a race where stem-cell research was key. (Her margin of victory was nearly the same as the referendum that allowed stem-cell research in her state.)

If the three Democrats who did not vote; Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut), Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) and, of course, Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), all voted aye, the vote would've been 66-34, just one shy of enough to override a Presidential veto. They all voted aye the last time it came up for a vote last year.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Senate override a Presidential veto? The House won't, but wouldn't it be fun to see the Senate do it? It'll show exactly how out of touch the President is with the population on this subject. Sununu would become the deciding vote if the roll call does not change when the vote to override occurs.

Democrats should hit him now, and hard.

A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

One Last Gasp from The Culture of Corruption

Earlier I spoke of how New Mexico's two most vulnerable Republicans shot themselves in the foot.

This is the best;

"He (Sen. Domenici) said, 'Are these going to be filed before November?' " former federal prosecutor David Iglesias, one of eight U.S. attorneys summarily fired in recent months, told the panel. "I said I didn't think so. And to which he replied, 'I'm very sorry to hear that.' And then the line went dead."

The Culture of Corruption was still around in October 2006 when this occurred.

I'm kinda surprised by Domenici over this, I didn't think he was that bad. Heather Wilson, on the other hand, doesn't surprise me. I like her excuse, "I was checking something out for a constituent"...cute Heather, very cute. I'm sure you were not trying to find someway to save your ass, since you only one reelection by 850 votes or so.

Just for those who are curious, here's a list of the federal prosecutors who were fired;

Carol Lam- Southern District of California
David Iglesias- District of New Mexico
H. E. Cummins III- Eastern District of Arkansas
Paul K. Charlton- District of Arizona
John McKay- Western District of Washington
Kevin V. Ryan- Northern District of California
Daniel Bogden- District of Nevada
Margaret Chiara- Western District of Michigan

If you're wondering why this is becoming such an issue, it's because prior to 2006, when there is a vacancy in the office of US Attorney, an interim would be named by the President, who would serve for up to 120 days, until the Senate could approve the Presidential nomination. If there is still a vacancy after 120 days, the court names an interim

However, part of The Patriot Act, that was passed without anyone really noticing it under GOP control of Congress, states that the Attorney General can nominate someone who then may serve as U.S. Attorney as long as it takes until the Senate confirms somebody. Nobody really noticed this part of the Patriot Act until now, because it was never brought up on the floor of Congress.

Democrats are looking into it Congressional hearings on this controversy started today

NM-Sen: Scandal's A Brewin

Just when you thought Senator Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) was unbeatable...then comes this

All Democrats need is a strong candidate and in this swing state (that may lean Democratic in 2008), and this becomes a top pickup opportunity.

The worst case scenario is if Domenici decides not to run for reelection, at which case a strong Democrat would have to face off against Rep. Heather Wilson (R-Albuquerque).

And I'd love to see Wilson get creamed and her House seat fall to a Democrat.

More reasons to see Bill Richardson become the Democratic nominee for President...a scandal and coattails in his home state..sweet.

UPDATE: It now appears Wilson is also implicated in this...could it be true? With Heather Wilson, it wouldn't surprise me.