2008 Senate Races- Democrats First Glance

DEMOCRATS

Arkansas- The only way this becomes a race is if Mike Huckabee drops out of the Presidential race and runs against Pryor. After his second place finish in the Iowa straw poll, the former Governor is licking his chops and probably looking for a VP slot. Pryor has little to worry about other than Huckabee. Democrats hold every statewide office and three of the four House seats. Favors Democrat

Delaware- Even if Joe Biden does get the Democratic nod, whoever runs in his place will win on his coattails, and even if Biden retires, unless Mike Castle runs for the seat, it will likely stay in Democratic hands. Biden will probably run though. Solid Democrat

Illinois- Durbin is probably the safest Senator up next year. Solid Democrat

Iowa- Tom Harkin has always weathered strong opposition and managed to pull out victories. His three opponents in his three reelection campaigns have all been popular Republican Congressmen from various parts of the state. He may face another again; Tom Latham or Steve King. If he can beat Jim Ross Lightfoot and Tom Tauke, he could beat Latham or King in a Democratic year. Favors Democrat

Louisiana- This should be an easy pickup for the Republicans, but the state's GOP House delegation have all passed on the race. Bobby Jindal is running for, and will probably be, governor, while Richard Baker, Jim McCrery, Rodney Alexander and Charles Boustany are all running for reelection to their House seats. Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy is being recruited to change parties and run, but he denies that he will. Unless Secretary of State Jay Dardenne gets into the race, Landrieu will be able to keep her seat…and if she does, it will be on pure luck. Slight Lean Democrat

Massachusetts- The people of the Bay State may be a little peeved at their junior Senator, but they're not going to replace him with a Republican. Solid Democrat

Michigan- This should be a race, but nobody is running. Rep. Candice Miller is probably waiting to run for Debbie Stabenow's seat in 2012. If Stabenow couldn't be beat, the chair of the Armed Services Committee sure can't. Solid Democrat

Montana- After Conrad Burns' loss last year, Republicans want to defeat Max Baucus. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is not running. The only candidate is former State House Majority Leader Michael Lange. Baucus is going to be helped by the reelection of popular Governor Brian Schweitzer. Favors Democrat

New Jersey- If the GOP couldn't defeat Bob Menendez, and that wasn't even close, they can't beat Frank Lautenberg or whichever Democrat decides to replace him. The Garden State is out of reach for the GOP right now. Favors Democrat

Rhode Island- The second coming of Lincoln Chafee couldn't beat Jack Reed. Go ahead, Governor Carcieri, give it a try, amuse us. Solid Democrat

South Dakota- Tim Johnson's illness may actually be a blessing in disguise (if that's possible.) Governor Mike Rounds would've defeated him, he's not running now. Johnson should win a close race, but if he were to retire, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would win a close race. Lean Democrat

West Virginia- Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito or Secretary of State Betty Ireland, other than that, Rockefeller is going to cruise for reelection. Capito would be the strongest candidate, but her House seat is shaky. Interesting note; her father defeated Rockefeller for Governor in 1972 and lost to him for the same office in 1980. Solid Democrat

SD-Sen: Johnson To Go Home

Senator Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota) is heading home to South Dakota to complete his recovery after a near-fatal brain hemorrahage back in December.

He plans on returning to the Senate in September.

No indication if he will run for reelection next year. If he doesn't, the seat could become a major race, and the most vulnerable of all Democratic seats.

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-South Dakota) could be the best hope to keep the seat, but she may be eyeing a race against Senator John Thune (R-South Dakota) in 2010.

Congressional Wedding Bells

I guess even in the halls of Congress, there are intermarriages, like in Hollywood.

This past weekend in Brookings, South Dakota, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D-South Dakota) and former Congressman Man Sandlin (D-Texas) tied the knot.

Sandlin served as a Congressman from Northeast Texas representing a district that was based around Texarkana until his defeat in 2004. He was one of the Texas Democrats defeated in Tom DeLay's gerrymandering of Texas.

Stephanie Herseth is a member of a political family in South Dakota. She won the seat of Republican Bill Janklow in a special election in 2004 when Janklow was sent to prison, and was reelected in the 2004 election and in 2006.

Herseth will now go by the name Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, which should go over well when she runs for Senate (God willing.)

A New Democratic Era: Importance of 2008

I said earlier that we would probably have to wait until after 2008 to see if the Democratic majority sticks and officially puts an end to the 26 year-old conservative era. I mean that more than just if a Democrat gets elected President in 2008, but the entire election in general.

First, it's important to realize the Republicans have the upper hand in 2007 elections. Three gubernatorial races are to be held, all in red states. Only Kentucky looks to be really competitive. Republicans have a huge chance for a pickup in Louisiana and look safe to reelect Haley Barbour in Mississippi. Kentucky really depends on the GOP primary, and even then, it appears to be a tossup.

In 2008, however, everything is up for grabs, the entire House, many of the most competitive Senate races, a slew of competitive gubernatorial races, and of course the crème de la crème, the White House.

Democrats, barring any major mishap, will probably keep their House majority. They will likely lose a few seats and gain a few they didn't gain in 2006. The important thing about the 2008 House Races is what will happen to the Democrats elected in Republican-leaning districts. Many of these Democrats are rather moderate to conservative and play well to Republicans in their district, but 2006 ushered in a whole gang of progressive, liberal Democrats in districts Bush won. Democratic freshmen, like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, John Hall of New York, Zack Space of Ohio, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Ciro Rodriguez of Texas, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Harry Mitchell of Arizona and Jerry McNerney of California all have voting records in their first months much farther to the left of their predecessors and sit in districts that have leaned Republican in the past. Their survival, coupled with how the Democratic nominee for President plays in their districts, may help judge the future of the Democratic majority and may confirm if there is in fact a New Democratic Era. Also in question is the survival of GOP House members who barely made it through last November. Republicans like Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Walsh, Peter King, and Randy Kuhl of New York, Mike Ferguson, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, Mike Castle of Delaware, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio, Robin Hayes of North Carolina, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Peter Roskam of Illinois, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming, and Dave Reichert of Washington all sit in seats that either lean Democratic and/or were nearly taken by the Democrats in 2006. These incumbents are going to be the Democrats' biggest targets in 2006 and many are facing the same competitive Democrats they barely defeated this past year. Some of these Republicans may retire, but if many of the aforementioned Republicans do not survive reelection campaigns in 2008, it could be a bright neon sign that the Republicans are looking at a long minority presence.

The Presidential race steers all else. A strong Democratic candidate may very well pull off a Democratic version of 1980, pulling many of the mentioned GOP House seats, competitive Senate races, such as the ones in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and possibly North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma, while defending their potentially competitive seats in Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota . Democrats can also use the nominee's coattails to defeat Republican governors in Missouri, Indiana and Vermont who may face close races, and protect their incumbent Governors (or open seats,) in Washington State, Delaware, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Rahm Emanuel was right when he said it is important the Democrats do not blow it in 2008. Their majority is still fragile and young and has the potential to reformat itself into a generation-long majority if they choose the right people with the right ideas that appeal to the population as a whole, (think Ronald Reagan here.)

If not, their majority might be no more than a short-lived Indian summer, but right now, the wind is with the Democrats, they just need to raise the sail right.

SD-Sen: Tragic Irony

Has Tim Johnson's illness saved his political career? Quite possibly

South Dakota is to many the GOP's best chance of picking up a Senate seat next year, but the GOP is having trouble recruiting a candidate and in fundraising. Seems the GOP doesn't exactly know how to attack a man when he's down (Quick, call Ann Coulter!)

Aside from Governor Mike Rounds, there isn't really a Republican who stands out against the popular Johnson. If Johnson is about to return to work, which is likely before the summer, and fully recovers, his brave fight with overshadow any other issue in the race. Although, I would say that shouldn't be the case, that is the tragic irony.

Johnson's vulnerability is not because of his illness, but rather his electoral history. Johnson defeated Republican incumbent Larry Pressler in 1996 by a 51%-49% margin and won reelection in 2002 by a few hundred votes.

If the Republicans do not manage to target Johnson and defeat him, they leave GOP Freshman Senator John Thune at the mercy of Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth in 2010. Despite it's Republican lean, South Dakota has seen a Republican Senator defeated as recently as 1996 (when Johnson defeated Pressler.) If the GOP continues on it's downward spiral, the popular Herseth could prove trouble for Thune in 2010.

With Landrieu up in Louisiana, there's a chance the GOP may be shut out two cycles in a row.

Wouldn't that be interesting.