Terry Everett- Alabama 2- R+13
Ray LaHood- Illinois 18- R+5
Dennis Hastert- Illinois 14- R+5
Chip Pickering- Mississippi 3- R+14
Deborah Pryce- Ohio 15- R+1
Jerry Weller- Illinois 11- R+1
Rick Renzi- Arizona 1- R+2
Duncan Hunter- California 52- R+9
Jim Ramstad- Minnesota 3- R+1
Ralph Regula- Ohio 16- R+3
David Hobson- Ohio 7- R+7
Heather Wilson- New Mexico 1- D+2
The GOP may be starting at least two down on House races in their effort to win back the House of Representatives. The Evans-Novak Politics Report lists two open Republican House seats as lean Democratic;
The First District of New Mexico, which includes Albuquerque, is open thanks to Republican Heather Wilson's campaign for the state's open US Senate seat. According to Evans-Novak;
"The district is 42 percent Hispanic, which puts it almost totally outside GOP reach: Republicans represent only five of the 41 other congressional districts that are one-third or more Hispanic." Wilson won reelection last year by just over 800 votes.
The Ohio 15th district, left open by the retirement of Republican Deborah Pryce, includes Columbus and some of the state capital's western suburbs. "Republicans may have given up on the seat currently held by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH)" Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, and a plethora of other strong Democrats, are running for the seat. Kilroy lost last year by about 1,000 votes.
Both seats Lean Democrat
Ray LaHood- Illinois 18- R+5
Dennis Hastert- Illinois 14- R+5
Chip Pickering- Mississippi 3- R+14
Deborah Pryce- Ohio 15- R+0.3
Jerry Weller- Illinois 11- R+.05
Rick Renzi- Arizona 1- R+2
Duncan Hunter- California 52- R+9
Jim Ramstad- Minnesota 3- R+1
They're dropping like flies.
Pryce narrowly held on by 1,000 votes last year, defeating Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who is running again...and Pryce is probably the most moderate Republican in the Ohio delegation.
The seat is about as Republican as the Arizona 8th or New York 24th, both open seats Democrats won last year by wide margins.
The district includes Downtown Columbus and the western half of the city and it's suburbs. The city of Columbus is Democratic, but the suburbs are overwhelmingly Republican. Bush defeated Kerry in the district by a mere 2,740 votes. Governor Ted Strickland won the district last year by a wide margin, and Senator Sherrod Brown carried it by a narrower, but still comfortable margin.
Still, without Pryce's incumbency helping the GOP in Columbus, and the absence of a widely known Republican (their number one choice, State Senator Steve Stivers is not running) Democrats have a HUGE chance of victory. This seat may be a lean Democratic pickup now that Pryce is retiring.
