Will It Really Kill Him?

All this brouhaha about Mike Huckabee and his appealing for the paroling of a rapist who later killed someone when he was Governor of Arkansas is of little interest to me.

The story goes that a relative of Bill Clinton was raped and her rapist went to jail. Anti-Clinton forces in Arkansas, where they were more ferocious than anywhere else early on, thought the convicted rapist got an unfair deal because his victim was a relative of the Clintons. The pressure put on Huckabee to push for his parole was obvious from anti-Clinton forces, but whether or not Huckabee's pleas for parole were political or just his Christian sympathetic personality is up for question. Perhaps this is the unintended consequence of his Christian beliefs, sort of like his sympathetic stance on illegal immigration and his reluctant support for the death penalty.

Even if Huckabee's support for parole was politically motivated, I cannot see how it would hurt him in the primary. Rather, it may actually help him. Republicans are only motivated due to their hatred for the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. In the general, however, it could hurt with independents, especially if he is not facing Clinton and anti-Clinton sentiment is not an issue.

Less than a month away from the Iowa caucus and with Huckabee opening quite a lead there, is it too late to derail his momentum? Is it too late for his GOP rivals to come back and stop him, or should Democrats be preparing to face the former Governor of Arkansas in the general. Is that why this issue is suddenly coming to light?

Iowa Congressman Endorses Edwards

As the Democratic Iowa Caucus turns into a three way dead heat between Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards, the first endorsement came out today from Iowa's congressional delegation.

Freshman Demcorat Bruce Braley, who represents Iowa's First District centered around Dubuque, Davenport and Waterloo, endorsed John Edwards.

Braley says of Edwards;

“Throughout this campaign, on issue after issue, John has proposed bold ideas to end the power of special interests in Washington and restore our government to the American people,” Braley said in a statement released by Edwards’s campaign. “John is the only Democratic candidate who grew up in rural America, and he has the most specific, most progressive and most far-reaching ideas.”

The rest of Iowa's delegation; two other Democratic House members, two Republican House members and Senators Tom Harkin, a Democrat, and Chuck Grassley, a Republican, have yet to endorse.

Braley's endorsement comes as Marc Ambinder states that Edwards has the best organization on the ground in Iowa. Ambinder notes that the campaign has trained "at least two precinct captains in more than 87 percent of caucus precincts statewide. Generally, campaigns don't release this kind of info, but in Edwards's case, it reinforces the case made by rival campaigns privately: if the caucuses were held tonight, based on organization alone, Edwards would probably win."

Iowa is much of a tossup as a tossup could be.

Court OK's Michigan Primary

Michigan's Primary will be January 15th

That means New Hampshire's will be sometime between January 3rd and 15th

UPDATE: New Hampshire's primary is January 8th

Romney Wins Iowa Poll

Helps when the top three frontrunners choose not to take part.

Romney won decisively, followed by Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson finished a disappointing sixth, followed by no-shows Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. Even Duncan Hunter beat John McCain.

No Election In 2007

"We're still going to have Christmas" was what Governor Chet Culver (D-Iowa) said, rejecting calls to hold the state's first in the nation caucus in December as other states, including Florida and South Carolina begin to move their primaries and caucuses up.

South Carolina moved their GOP primary to January 19th. The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 14th. Culver hinted there may be a deal with the first primary state of New Hampshire in the works to keep both in January.

Iowa's caucuses are held eight days before New Hampshire's primary, which, under the current calendar, would happen after South Carolina.

Either way, in six months, we're going to know who the candidates for President are.

Presidential Race: All Over The Place

The common consensus seems to point to a Clinton vs. Giuliani race as they are the frontrunners, right?

wrong?

When you look at the race state by state...It's all over the map...literally.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards has consistently held a small lead in the first caucus state of Iowa, Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, Barack Obama has opened out in front in South Carolina and Bill Richardson is looking to pull off an upset in Nevada.

On the GOP side, John McCain appears to be doing well in Iowa...and only Iowa, Mitt Romney has staged a surge in New Hampshire, Fred Thompson, assuming he's running, is out in front in South Carolina, while Giuliani still holds a lead in Florida.

Although Iowa, New Hampshire, and the rest are early, they don't mean everything in this race. In 1992, Tom Harkin won Iowa and Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire and Bill Clinton ended up winning. Steve Forbes came in second in Iowa in the GOP race in 2000.

However, with the primary season altered completely this year, there is little chance for a candidate blown away in the early states to resurge as a certain former Arkansas Governor did in 1992.

Still, it's far from a certain Hillary vs. Rudy race.

Frontrunners in Third

A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll for the Democratic and Republican caucuses put John Edwards and Mitt Romney on top of their respective party's caucuses.

Edwards leads by six over second placer Barack Obama, followed closely behind by Hillary Clinton; 29%-23%-21%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is at 10%

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney leads the pack with 30%, while John McCain follows far behind at 18%. Rudy Giuliani is in THIRD with 17%.

Giuliani and Clinton are supposedly the front runners, both in third according to this poll.

Zogby: Romney leads in Iowa, N.H.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who I still believe will end up as the GOP nominee, has opened a lead in the GOP race in the two crucial first caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire according to Zogby.

In Iowa, his lead is small, leading Giuliani and McCain by 1%; 19%-18%-18%. However, this is up from 5% in January, while Giuliani has lost all the ground he's gain since then.

In New Hampshire however, the state to the north of the one Romney was governor of until January, he has opened a substanial lead over Giuliani and McCain; 35%-19%-19%.

Perhaps Republicans and beginning to realize the most "conservative" candidate out there in Romney and maybe it's better to loose with a "conservative" than win with a fake.

Or maybe Zogby is pulling my leg again.