Court OK's Michigan Primary

Michigan's Primary will be January 15th

That means New Hampshire's will be sometime between January 3rd and 15th

UPDATE: New Hampshire's primary is January 8th

No Election In 2007

"We're still going to have Christmas" was what Governor Chet Culver (D-Iowa) said, rejecting calls to hold the state's first in the nation caucus in December as other states, including Florida and South Carolina begin to move their primaries and caucuses up.

South Carolina moved their GOP primary to January 19th. The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 14th. Culver hinted there may be a deal with the first primary state of New Hampshire in the works to keep both in January.

Iowa's caucuses are held eight days before New Hampshire's primary, which, under the current calendar, would happen after South Carolina.

Either way, in six months, we're going to know who the candidates for President are.

Clinton, Obama Gets Big Endorsements

Hillary Clinton got a big endorsement today...from the Senior Senator of the nation's biggest state.

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California) officially endorsed Clinton, becoming the seventh US Senator and 56th member of Congress to endorse Clinton.

Senator Obama also got a major endorsement out of the most important primary state. Freshman Congressman Paul Hodes (D-New Hampshire) endorsed Obama. Hodes' endorsement will no doubt help Obama in the all important primary state where he has been trailing Clinton by large margins.

Obama has got the endorsement of Rep. Steve Rothman (D-New Jersey). Rothman decided to endorse Obama despite the movement of New Jersey Democrats toward Senator Clinton. So far prominent New Jersey Democrats like Governor Jon Corzine, Senator Bob Menendez and Representatives Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews and Albio Sires have all thrown their support behind the Senator from the state next door.

Presidential Race: All Over The Place

The common consensus seems to point to a Clinton vs. Giuliani race as they are the frontrunners, right?

wrong?

When you look at the race state by state...It's all over the map...literally.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards has consistently held a small lead in the first caucus state of Iowa, Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, Barack Obama has opened out in front in South Carolina and Bill Richardson is looking to pull off an upset in Nevada.

On the GOP side, John McCain appears to be doing well in Iowa...and only Iowa, Mitt Romney has staged a surge in New Hampshire, Fred Thompson, assuming he's running, is out in front in South Carolina, while Giuliani still holds a lead in Florida.

Although Iowa, New Hampshire, and the rest are early, they don't mean everything in this race. In 1992, Tom Harkin won Iowa and Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire and Bill Clinton ended up winning. Steve Forbes came in second in Iowa in the GOP race in 2000.

However, with the primary season altered completely this year, there is little chance for a candidate blown away in the early states to resurge as a certain former Arkansas Governor did in 1992.

Still, it's far from a certain Hillary vs. Rudy race.

Romney Surges In New Hampshire

Bringing everyone back to my theory that Mitt Romney will be the GOP standard bearer next year, I give you the latest post-debate CNN poll.

The poll has Romney at 29%, nine points ahead of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who are tied at 20%. Fred Thompson comes in next at 11%, while Newt Gingrich comes in a 4%, Ron Paul at 3%, Mike Huckabee and Sam Browback both at 2% and Tom Tancredo at 1%.

Romney is complementing his surge with a major Ad push according to the New York Times.

"He increased his advertising in a huge way last month, spending more than $2
million, much of it on national cable advertisements. This month, he added a run
of television commercials in South Carolina, another early primary. His
aggressiveness this early over the airwaves stands in contrast to his Republican
competitors, who have yet to broadcast any television spots."

I'm in New York and so far the only campaign ads I've seen for ANY Presidential candidate, Democrat or Republican, have been for Mitt Romney.

Live Free or Vote Democrat

Democrats are going into the 2008 Presidential primaries with an advantage they haven't had in contemporary American political history;

A leg up in the first primary state of New Hampshire.

The Granite State has historically been a GOP stronghold, and even until recently, a "pink" state, but since 2004, the New Hampshire GOP has been in complete disarray thanks to the ideological divide between New Hampshire voters and the GOP nationwide.

In 2004, John Kerry carried New Hampshire with 50.2%, making him one of only three Democrats to win a majority statewide in the last 100 years. (The other two being Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and FDR in 1940 and 1944, all three won landslides nationwide.) Kerry was also the first Democrat to win New Hampshire, but lose the election in post Civil-War American history. That same year Democrat John Lynch defeated one-term GOP incumbent Craig Benson 51%-49%, the first time a Democrat defeated a one term incumbent since 1924. New Hampshire voted for George W. Bush in 2000, after going to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 with a plurality. Before that, Republicans won the state from 1948-1988 with the exception of Lyndon Johnson's landslide win in 1964.

Two years later, John Lynch led the Democratic Party to a statewide landslide of monumental proportions, winning nearly three out of four New Hampshire votes. Both GOP Representatives in the House of Representatives, both moderates, were defeated by staunchly anti-war Democrats Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. The latter's victory came totally unexpected. The 110th Congress marked the first time since 1914 that New Hampshire was represented in the House of Representatives by two Democrats. The New Hampshire General Court, which had been in GOP control for over a century, flipped to the Democrats.

The muscle Democrats seem to be showing in the approaching election doesn't bode well for the state's junior Senator; John Sununu. Sununu narrowly defeated then-Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a controversial election in 2002, a Republican year. Next year, he may face Shaheen again, and if not, Democrats seem ready to throw their support behind Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand. Either way, Sununu is a top target of Democrats, and a depressed New Hampshire GOP does not help their chances of keeping the seat and flipping the narrow control of the US Senate.

With 2008 approaching, Democratic Presidential candidates are drawing bigger crowds, more donors and more enthusiasm than the GOP hopefuls.

According to the Boston Globe on May 31st, Democratic candidates have averaged $22,224 from 193 donors, while the Republican candidates averaged $20.028 from 144 donors, more than half of that being from Mitt Romney, the former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts. A recent poll showed 47% of Democrats extremely interested in the upcoming primaries, while only 25% of Republicans are very interested. CNN reported on June 1, 2007 that 2/3 of New Hampshire Independents, who make up a plurality of registered voters, plan to vote in the Democratic primary.

What's destroying the GOP in New Hampshire? Well, the war is obviously unpopular nationwide, especially in New Hampshire, but it is New Hampshire's political history of being the "Live Free or Die" state that has hurt the GOP. For years, the GOP has been able to win over New Hampshire by opposing issues associated with the Democratic Party; the welfare state, big government, taxes, spending, gun control, etc. Now, the Republican Party is supporting issues New Hampshire Libertarians oppose; parts of the PATRIOT Act, Warantless wiretapping, the religious right. Government intrusion on people's lives is not a popular thing in New Hampshire, never was. Remember, this is the state that vehemently opposes mandatory seat belt laws. Previous to this administration, it had been the Democrats who had been branded as the party who intruded into privacy, but today, the Republicans appear to be that party and it has hurt them in the land of Live Free or Die.

New Hampshire and the first caucus state of Iowa are key swing states in the general election. Democratic strength in the New Hampshire primary gives a good indication as to who would be the favorite in the general. Democratic strength indicates the possibility that Democrats will again win New Hampshire in the general and steal all of New England again. As if it wasn't bad enough the Republicans have pretty much lost the rest of New England, losing New Hampshire would essentially turn the Northeast US into a region that will balance out the Republican south...assuming the south stays Republican.

Zogby: Romney leads in Iowa, N.H.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who I still believe will end up as the GOP nominee, has opened a lead in the GOP race in the two crucial first caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire according to Zogby.

In Iowa, his lead is small, leading Giuliani and McCain by 1%; 19%-18%-18%. However, this is up from 5% in January, while Giuliani has lost all the ground he's gain since then.

In New Hampshire however, the state to the north of the one Romney was governor of until January, he has opened a substanial lead over Giuliani and McCain; 35%-19%-19%.

Perhaps Republicans and beginning to realize the most "conservative" candidate out there in Romney and maybe it's better to loose with a "conservative" than win with a fake.

Or maybe Zogby is pulling my leg again.

Bad Day For Giuliani: Part One

Giuliani's getting some bad press this weekend;

In New Hampshire, the all important first primary state, Giuliani released his list of supporters from the Granite State, much to the surprise of some people who found their names on list...and aren't supporters;

Like Wendy Stanley Jones, who is listed as head of Women for Giuliani...only, she hasn't yet endorsed Giuliani.

The list comes only days after John McCain released his more impressive list of supporters in New Hampshire. McCain has a former Governor while Giuliani doesn't.

Good news for the former New York City mayor; some people listed on the list have decided to endorse Giuliani anyway so not to embarass his campaign.