Virginia Picks Convention

The Virginia GOP has decided to pick it's nominee for John Warner's open Senate seat by convention next year rather than primary.

Two Republicans, conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore and moderate Fairfax County Congressman Tom Davis, are considering running for the Senate seat. Both are trailing to assumed Democratic nominee former Governor Mark Warner by nearly 30% in recent polls. A convention would avoid a bloody primary fight which can weaken the eventual nominee.

A convention favors conservatives and thus favors Gilmore. It could mean Tom Davis may not even make a bid for the Senate seat (and instead take on Jim Webb in 2012.) If he runs, his open House seat becomes a top Democratic target. If he doesn't run, Democrats would have a harder (although not impossible) time taking his House seat.

NE-Sen, VA-Sen: Mass Retirement?

Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska) was one of the first Republicans to hint at running for President in 2008. He brought up the possibility at the Republican National Convention in 2004, before Bush even won reelection.

Now, Hagel may not even be in the Senate at the start of the next President's turn.

Hagel, who was one of the first Republicans to break with Bush on Iraq, may retire altogether instead of running for reelection next year, where he faces a tough primary challenge agains the pro-war Joe Bruning, Nebraska's Attorney General.

Robert Novak says this;

"Hagel must decide what to do in 2008: to run for president, to run for Senate re-election or to get out of politics. The betting in the Senate Republican cloakroom is that he will retire, but Hagel has given no signal of his intentions and tells friends that he has yet to make a decision."

Democrats don't have a candidate yet, but likely will if Hagel decides to retire. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, former Senator Bob Kerrey, and 2006 3rd District House candidate Scott Kleeb, who got 45% in a district that went over 70% for Bush, are all possible Democratic nominees. Either way, a Hagel retirement would add Nebraska to the list of potentially vulnerable seats for the GOP.

Also likely to be on that list is Virginia, where 80 year-old John Warner looks to be preparing to retire. In a state where Democrats have taken two straight top statewide races in two years, an open seat would be gold in another Democratic year, especially if they get the other Warner to run, former Governor Mike Warner, who gave the Republican Warner his only difficult run for reelection in 1996.

Again, Robert Novak;

"The state's GOP leaders not long ago were sure that 80-year-old Republican Sen. John Warner would seek a sixth term in 2008, but now they think he probably will not. That would open the door for Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner (no relation) to enter the race. Any Republican would be an underdog against the Democratic Warner."

Republicans are likely to nominate the moderate Congressman Tom Davis of Fairfax County, who represents a district the Democrats would certainly have to win to win the seat. Webb got 53% in Davis' district last year. Davis, however, may be too moderate for the conservative Virginia GOP and conservatives may force an inconvienent primary challenge against Davis. His House seat, however, is likely to go to the Democrats.

Remember that Republicans are already having a hard time holding on to their open seat in Colorado.

VA-Sen, VA-11: The Tom Davis Question

Democrats have a great chance at a big victory in Virginia, one way or another.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that Sen. John Warner (R-Virginia) is on the verge of retirement. After winning back to back statewide elections for Governor and Senator in 2005 and 2006, an open Senate seat in what very well may be a swing state in a Democratic year is gold for the Democratic Party.

The top Republican candidate would have to be somebody who can hold his base and win over the moderate independents in Virginia who always tended to lean slightly toward the Republicans.

Enter Rep. Tom Davis, the moderate Republican representing Fairfax and Prince William Counties in the Washington DC suburbs. Davis is perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Virginia delegation. In fact, he may well sit slightly to the left of Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher from the panhandle region. Davis is the most likely choice for Warner's Senate seat and would be a formidable Republican candidate statewide, especially since the Democrats don't really have a statewide candidate sans Mark Warner, who nearly won the seat in 1996. Davis could also have the chance of carrying his own House district in a Senate race, which a Democrat would need to carry to win statewide.

Still, a Davis candidacy for the Senate leaves his very competitive 11th district seat open. The Virginia 11th only narrowly voted for Bush by 2,000 votes out of 323,000 cast. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006 both carried the district by fairly wide margins. The district is about as Republicans as the Arizona 8 or New York 24, both of which went to the Democratic candidates by fairly wide margins in 2006. Democrats only hold three of the eleven House seats in Virginia, despite their growing power in the state. Davis' seat would be a top pickup opportunity.

VA-Sen: $500 Race?

Senator John Warner (R-Virginia) only raised $500 for his reelection campaign this quarter.

Yes, you heard me right, $500.

Could this mean that the former Armed Services Committee chairman and husband of Elizabeth Taylor is about ready to retire and open a very competitive seat where the Democrats have won two major statewide races in as many years?

Let the Mark Warner rumors begin. Democrats should begin prepping not only for a race for Senate, but for a race for Tom Davis' suburban Washington House seat, as he would be the most likely GOP candidate for Senate should Warner, John retire.