Election Night Recap

It was a pretty good day for Democrats, with some exceptions here and there;

In the big race of the year; Kentucky's Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher lost reelection in a landslide, being defeated by former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear, a Democrat, 59%-41%. Beshear even carried the heavily Republican Cincinnatti suburbs, which Fletcher carried by over 20 points in 2003. Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor-elect Dan Mongiardo was Senator Jim Bunning's 2004 opponent who nearly ousted him, earning a surprising 49% of the vote.

Democratic State Auditor Crit Luallen won her reelection campaign in a similar landslide, and, according to some sources, is being touted as an opponent to Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minorty Leader, next year.

In Mississippi, Democrat John Eaves Jr. lost the Governor's race to incumbent Republican Haley Barbour, but Barbour's 58%-42% victory is smaller than most had expected. Barbour's key to victory lay along the state's Gulf Coast, where he is applauded for his response to Hurricane Katrina. Barbour won nearly 3 our of 4 votes cast in the Biloxi, Gulfport area. Mississippi Republicans won all statewide races, except Attorney General, where Democrat Jim Hood won reelection in a similar landslide to Barbour.

Democrats saw their own success in Mississippi, where they won back control of the State Senate, which they lost in 2004, and increased their majority in the State House.

The big news in state legislature races was in Virginia, where Democrats won control of the Virginia Senate for the first time since 1995. Democrats picked up four seats, including the Fairfax County seat of Republican Jeanmarie Devolites-Davis, wife of US Representative Tom Davis, to take a 21-19 majority in the state Senate. Democrats picked up three seats in the House of Delegates to narrow GOP control 54-44 with 2 Independents.

In New Jersey, where a ballot issue to borrow over $400 million to fund stem-cell research failed, the state legislature did not see big changes. Democratic State Senator Ellen Karcher was defeated in a nasty race by Republican State Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck and in the same district, Democratic Assemblyman Michael Panter, who won his 2005 election by 73 votes, was also defeated. Karcher's defeat was cancelled out by two surprise State Senate victories in South Jersey. In the first district, which includes Cape May and Cumberland Counties, Democratic State Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew defeated State Senator Nicholas Asselta. In the next door Atlantic City-based 2nd District, Democrat Jim Whelan defeated Republican Jim McCullough, but Whelan's assembly seat was lost to the Republicans. Democrats picked up the seat of Republican Bill Baroni in the 14th district. Baroni was elected to the State Senate, replaced Peter Inverso. Democrat Wayne De Angelo won Baroni's Assembly seat and Linda Greenstein, a Democrat, was reelected.

In Ohio, Republican Bob Latta narrowly defeated Steve Buehrer to win the Republican nomination for the Ohio 5th Congressional District special election on December 11th. He will face Democrat Robin Weirauch. Also, Janet Creighton, the Republican Mayor of Canton, located in the battleground 16th Congressional district, an open race next year, was defeated by Democrat James Healy 53%-47%.

In Texas, Democrats picked up a State House seat in Fort Worth in a Special Election, narrowing the Republican majority to 79-71. In Maine, Democrats won an open Republican state House seat, expanding their majority there.

Democrats saw mixed successes in Indiana, where Democrat Bart Peterson, Indianapolis' mayor went down in a shocking defeat against Republican Greg Ballard, but Democrats were fairly successful in other Indiana cities, winning the mayor's races in Fort Wayne, South Bend, Portage, Bloomington, and Elkhart. Democrats defeated incumbent Republican mayors in Anderson and Madison and won an open mayor's seat in Kokomo. Muncie is too close to call, but it appears the Democrat is ahead.

A ballot issue allowing for school vouchers failed in Utah, as did a tax hike on cigarettes in Oregon.

The Mayors of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Columbus, and San Francisco, all Democrats, were reelected, while the Republican mayors of Charlotte, Jacksonville and Tuscon were also reelected. Democrat Michael Nutter was elected Mayor of Philadelphia.

Locally, in New York;

Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan was reelected in the only real race in New York City.

On Long Island; Suffolk County Democrats had a great night. Democratic County Executive Steve Levy won reelection, as expected. The Democratic town supervisors of the former Republican strongholds of Brookhaven Islip and Riverhead all won reelection. Democrats picked up a seat in the Suffolk Legislature to increase their majority to 11-7.

Nassau County saw little change, a pale comparison to two years ago, when Democrats won the DA seat. Republicans took over the Long Beach city council and votes rejected the idea of creating the position of mayor. Mayor Ralph Suozzi of Glen Cove was reelected, while the Town Supervisors of Hempstead, North Hempstead and Oyster Bay all kept their positions comfortably. In the County Legislature, Democrats appear to have kept their 10-9 majority, but failed to come close to ousting any GOP incumbent. Republican John Ciotti, the most vulnerable Republican, defeated his Democratic opponent Ali Marza 57%-43%. Democrat Jeffrey Toback of Oceanside kept his seat by a 54%-46% margin, as did Democrat Diane Yaturo of Glen Cove, who won 57%-43%. Democrat Joseph Scannell of Baldwin defeated his Republican opponent 55%-45%. Republicans have not conceded in the 14th legislative district of David Meijias of Farmingdale, who ran unsuccesfully for Congress against Peter King last year. Meijias leads his Republican opponent by 222 votes, a 51%-49% margin with 300 absentee ballots to be counted. A Meijias loss would throw control of the county legislature back to the GOP.

Can The Dems Get 60 Seats?

It's possible.

Handicapping the latest in the 2008 Senate Races, the possibility exists for the Democrats to even make as many as 10-11 gains. It seems hard to believe, but it's entirely possible;

Former Governors Mark Warner (D-Virginia) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) look poised to enter their respective states' Senate races next year. Both hold commanding leads over any potential Republican rivals, Warner over Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore and Shaheen over Incumbent Senator John Sununu, effectively making them possible lost causes for the GOP. The open seat in Colorado provides the Democrats still with their best pickup opportunity, and the freshly open seat in Nebraska increases the headaches for the Republicans should former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey jump into the race.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) are both facing very tough reelection campaigns in blue states, while Democrats have found a strong candidate in State House Speaker Jeff Merkley to run against Gordon Smith (R-Oregon).

That's seven seats already. Republicans may even see potentially competitive races in North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) and Alaska (Ted Stevens), the latter of whom is showered in scandal. The heat may have died down over the Attorney Firing Scandal since Alberto Gonzales resigned, but Democrats don't look to let Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) forget about it.

And then there's Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who may face a strong challenger in Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo or Lexington Congressman Ben Chandler.

That's 11 seats...in the unlikely scenario the Democrats sweep them all, that would give them an astonishing 62 seats, a majority unheard of since the 1970's, and even should they loose their two vulnerable seats in Louisiana and South Dakota, Democrats would still have 60...enough to make their majority filibuster proof.

2008 Senate Races- GOP First Glance

REPUBLICANS

Alabama- As soon as State Agriculture Ron Sparks passed on the race, Jeff Sessions was set. Solid Republican

Alaska- Under an ethics cloud, Ted Stevens, a Senator for 40 years, once third in line to the Presidency and the man Alaska's largest airport was named after may retire at the end of his term to avoid defeat. Although even then it may take a powerful Democrat to knock this guy out. They named the damn airport after him. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich would be the strongest nominee, but he may be interested in running for his father's old seat; Alaska's at-large Congressional seat. State Representative Eric Croft and former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz are also possibilities. Republicans would have an easier time defending an open seat, but with Begich as the nominee, this may become much like Colorado. Slight Lean Republican

Colorado- Wayne Allard or not, Republicans would've had a hard time either way keeping this seat. Colorado has quickly become a swing state; a strong liberal base around Denver and Boulder evening out the ultra conservatives in Colorado Springs. Democrats won the other Senate seat in 2004 and the Governor's race in a mini-landslide in 2006. More impressive, John Kerry received 47% of the vote in Colorado, the highest margin for a Democrat here since 1964. Congressman Mark Udall is the Democratic nominee, Republican Bob Schaffer, the GOP's third choice, is probably going to be the Republican nominee. Udall is a slight favorite, but this state hasn't trended fully blue yet. Tossup

Georgia- Saxby Chambliss shouldn't be a shoo-in, but he is. Max Cleland should run again, but he won't. Georgia is one of the few states trending Republican right now. Democratic Congressman Sanford Bishop or Jim Marshall, both moderate enough to appeal to Georgia voters, can make this a race. Solid Republican

Idaho- I'd say Larry Craig would be safe, but Jerry Brady's shocking 44% against Idaho's most popular Republican in last year's governor's race intrigues me. I don't think it's too long until Idaho becomes more competitive for the Democrats. It probably won't be next year, but Democrat Larry LaRocco's entry into the race is enough to make some Republicans sweat a little. Favors Republican

Kansas- Governor Kathleen Sebelius is not running…yet, and until she does, whatever Republican running is safe. Pat Roberts is 2008's shoo-in. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in Kansas since the 1930's. Solid Republican

Kentucky- Democratic Attorney General Greg Stumbo can make this a race, and he'll likely run against the Republican floor leader. Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler would turn this race into a tossup. Democrats will probably look to avenge Tom Daschle's 2004 defeat and if the Democrats won the governor's race in November, they're going to pour a massive amount of money into this race. Lean Republican

Maine- It's hard for me to accept that Susan Collins is vulnerable, but then I remember Collins is not Olympia Snowe. Tom Allen is the only Democrat who can make it a race and he's in. If Collins wins, she wins with under 55%, and I think she will. Slight Lean Republican

Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar's unexpected landslide win put the brakes on Minnesota's GOP trend. Coleman may be helped by the RNC being held in his state, but Minnesota is not exactly welcoming territory for the GOP right now. It's hard to imagine a Senator Al Franken, but this is the same state that elected Jesse Ventura governor. Slight Lean Republican

Mississippi- The only safe Republicans are those in the deep south. Unless Thad Cochran retires, there is no race here and retirement looks unlikely. The GOP standard-bearer is Congressman Chip Pickering, who is also retiring. Solid Republican

Nebraska- The Cornhusker State is all over the place next year. Chuck Hagel's anti-war stance has brought great annoyance to the pro-war Nebraska Republican Party and he is being challenged in the GOP primary by Attorney General Jon Bruning. No Democrat has entered the race yet, but Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey are contemplating a race. Either one would make this a tough race for Bruning, who will likely beat Hagel if he runs again. Slight Lean Republican

New Hampshire- John Sununu is the Rick Santorum of 2008. Santorum would've been defeated by any Democrat last year, but Bob Casey was the one who made it a sure thing for the Democrats. Jeanne Shaheen is this year's Bob Casey. Sununu is going to lose either way, Katrina Swett or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand will win, narrowly, but Shaheen make this Lean Democrat. Tossup

New Mexico- See Alaska. Could there be too Senator Udalls in the 111^th Congress? Lean Republican

North Carolina- Democrats needed Governor Mike Easley, they didn't get him. They needed Congressman Brad Miller, they didn't get him. Still, Dole is vulnerable to almost any viable challenger. Democratic State Representative Grier Martin is their next top choice. He's not running yet. Lean Republican

Oklahoma- Inhofe should be safe, but Democratic State Senator Andrew Rice excited progressives when he announced he's run against Mr. "Global warming is a hoax and I'm proud my family has no gays." I don't think Inhofe will lose, unfortunately, but Rice will show that even progressives are competitive in Oklahoma. Favors Republican

Oregon- State House Speaker Jeff Merkley is an excellent candidate for the Democrats. Still, Smith was one of the first Republicans to break with Bush on Iraq, and Oregon isn't as Democratic as you might think. Smith may win, but if he does, it will be narrowly. Lean Republican

South Carolina- Lindsey Graham's only race may be in the GOP primary. Like Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, the Bible Belt will prove to be the last GOP stronghold. Solid Republican

Tennessee- Lamar Alexander should be vulnerable, but like the states that surround it to the south, Tennessee's Senior Republican Senator will easily win reelection. Solid Republican

Texas- John Cornyn is very unpopular, but he's still a Republican in a Republican state. Progressive Democrats favor State Rep. Rick Noriega of Houston, while national Democrats seem to be leaning toward the more conservative Mikal Watts. Either way, Cornyn isn't going to win the landslide Kay Bailey Hutchison did in 2006. Hells, he may not win at all. Likely Republican.

Virginia- If John Warner retires, which is likely, this may move all the way to Tossup. Do not underestimate the statewide appeal of Congressman Tom Davis. He's a moderate from very important Northern Virginia. However, if former Governor Jim Gilmore decides to run a primary against Davis and former Governor Mark Warner jumps in on the Democratic side, Virginia may send two Democrats to the Senate in 2009 for the first time since the early 1960's. Lean Republican

Wyoming (Enzi)- Enzi is probably unbeatable minus a challenge from Governor Freudenthal, and even then it may be easier to go for the Junior Senator Solid Republican

Wyoming (Barasso)- Whoever the Democrats get will likely face Barasso. The Democrats' best hope is that Freudenthal runs for one seat, while Gary Trauner runs for the other. Likely Republican

McConnell: Iraq Is Disappointing Me

``The Iraqi government is a huge disappointment, So far, they've not been able do anything they promised on the political side,It's a growing frustration. I don't know what their problem is but this country has made an enormous investment in giving the Iraqis a chance to have a normal government after all of these years of Saddam Hussein and his atrocities. I want to assure you, if they vote to ask us to leave, we'll be glad to comply with their request,''

No, that's not Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, that's Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)

McConnell's comments echo the idea that Congress is beginning to lose patience with this war. While he still supports the President's plan, McConnell's comments make the crack on the Republican side of Congress even more obvious.

Then again, maybe McConnell is scared of being Daschled next year. There's only so much Iraq war Kentucky can take.

Anyway, these are words I waited patiently to hear ANYBODY on the GOP side of the isle said. I know my biggest disappointment is the laziness and lack of ambition the Iraqi government has to take back their country. Then again, why should they try? They have the best military in the world defending them for as long as they want them to. I would take a two month vacation too.

KY-Sen: McConnell Vulnerable

Earlier this month, I speculated on the possibility that Democrata may ride another anti-Republican wave and take out the Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) much like the Republicans took out Tom Daschle in 2004.

A new poll from the DSCC shows Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler of Lexington one point behind Senator McConnell 45%-44%.

The poll, perhaps more importantly, shows McConnell below 50%. It's a partisan poll, so it should be taken with a grain of salt, but if the Senate Minority Leader is vulnerable in a partisan poll...there's already a problem.

Stem Cell Bill Passes Senate

The vote was 63-34 with 3 members not voting, all Democrats.

49 of the 51 Democrats/Independents voted for the bill, Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) and Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pennsylvania) voted against.

The bill also got the support of 17 of the 49 Republicans (Those up for reelection in '08 in bold);
Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
Robert Bennett (R-Utah)
Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)
Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
Susan Collins (R-Maine)
Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire)
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)
Trent Lott (R-Mississippi)
Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
John McCain (R-Arizona)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Gordon Smith (R-Oregon)
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)
Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)
Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)
John Warner (R-Virginia)

Noticeable dissenters include, most surprisingly John Sununu (R-New Hampshire,) who, as I mentioned earlier, is being heavily targeted in 2008. Interestingly, he voted nay, but Senator Gregg, the more conservative of the two Granite State Senators voted Aye. Sununu was the ONLY Northeast Senator to vote nay. The most northeastern state where a Senator voted nay other than New Hampshire was Ohio where George Voinovich voted nay. Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota), Elizabeth Dole (R-North Carolina) and Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) also all voted nay.

Aside from Casey, all other freshman Democrats voted aye, including Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri) who narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent in a race where stem-cell research was key. (Her margin of victory was nearly the same as the referendum that allowed stem-cell research in her state.)

If the three Democrats who did not vote; Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut), Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) and, of course, Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), all voted aye, the vote would've been 66-34, just one shy of enough to override a Presidential veto. They all voted aye the last time it came up for a vote last year.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Senate override a Presidential veto? The House won't, but wouldn't it be fun to see the Senate do it? It'll show exactly how out of touch the President is with the population on this subject. Sununu would become the deciding vote if the roll call does not change when the vote to override occurs.

Democrats should hit him now, and hard.

Revenge For Daschle?

An attempt to knock off the Senate Minority Leader two years after winning back the majority? Where have I seen this before?

Oh right, the Republicans did that with Tom Daschle. In 2002 they made him Minority Leader, it 2004, they made him unemployed.

It's happening again.

Mitch McConnell may not be on the top of the list of potential Democratic pickups in 2008, but perhaps it should be, and perhaps it will be. This ad may be the first of many we see in an attempt to achieve revenge for Daschle.

Kentucky is not an overwhelmingly Republican state. State Senator Daniel Mongiardo nearly knocked off Jim Bunning in 2004 despite Bush winning the state by 20%. Bunning won 51%-49%.

If Democrats win this year's gubernatorial race, currently seen as a tossup, look for McConnell to shoot to the top of the list of Republicans the Democrats will look to knock off. If the Democratic primary for Governor proves anything, it proves there isn't a shortage of Democrats who can run against McConnell. Dan Mongiardo may decided to take another run for Senate if he doesn't get elected Lieutenant Governor, as may former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry, State Attorney General Greg Stumbo, Congressman Ben Chandler, former Congressman Ken Lucas, State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, Secretary of State John Y. Brown, or Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives Jody Richards.

Don't think Chuck Schumer isn't salivating over the possibility of knocking out the Senate Minority Leader, but this race will remain a dark horse until we see who wins the gubernatorial election in November.