FINALLY, they get tough
Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Georgia) threaten to cut aid to the Iraqi government if they do not move forward in political reconciliation that is so badly needed there.
Finally, the GOP has realized sending in troops is pointless unless the Iraqis themselves do some work. Democracy does not come at the barrell of a gun.
Just when the Mississippi GOP thought it was safe when Thad Cochran decided to run again, this happens.
If he resigns before the end of the year, there will be a special election in the spring, if he resigns after the first of the year, the special election with coincide with the general election in November, which means Mississippi, like Wyoming, will elect two Senators at once. He's expected to leave before the end of year when coincidently new ethics rules passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress that would ban members of Congress from lobbying on the Hill for two year after they leave office.
An open seat would give the Democrats a chance to win a Mississippi Senate seat for the first time since 1982. Former Attorney General Mike Moore, Current Attorney General Jim Hood and Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove are both potential Democratic candidates for the seat. GOP Governor Haley Barbour will appoint a caretaker for the seat who may or may not run for reelection in 2008. They include GOP Congressmen Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering. Pickering has stated he was retiring from his Congressional seat next year.
Solid Democrat:
Arkansas
Delaware
Illinois
Iowa
Massachusetts
Michigan
Montana
New Jersey
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Likely Democrat:
South Dakota
Virginia
Lean Democrat:
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Slight Lean Democrat:
Louisiana
Colorado
Tossup:
Minnesota
Slight Lean Republican:
Maine
Oregon
Lean Republican:
Kentucky
Likely Republican:
Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Texas
Solid Republican:
Alabama
Georgia
Kansas
Mississippi
South Carolina
Tennessee
Wyoming
Wyoming (Barasso)
US Representative Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) is officially running for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici
Udall had originally decided not to run, but has since changed his mind. Udall has polled stronger than any other New Mexico Democrat, minus Governor Richardson.
Udall represents Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe and Taos and part of Eastern New Mexico, includin Clovis, in the House. He is the son of Stewart Udall, former Arizona congressman and Secretary of the Interior during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and the nephew of Mo Udall, Stewart's brother who also was an Arizona congressman and a Presidential candidate in 1976.
Udall's candidancy means all three members of the New Mexico House delegation are running. Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are also running. Udall has polled over Wilson and Pearce in the double digits in recent polling.
Udall is less certain than Mark Warner in Virginia, but more certain than his cousin, Mark Udall in neighboring Colorado. He's about the same as Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. I predict all four will likely be Senators in the 111th Congress.
Lean Democrat.
It was a pretty good day for Democrats, with some exceptions here and there;
In the big race of the year; Kentucky's Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher lost reelection in a landslide, being defeated by former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear, a Democrat, 59%-41%. Beshear even carried the heavily Republican Cincinnatti suburbs, which Fletcher carried by over 20 points in 2003. Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor-elect Dan Mongiardo was Senator Jim Bunning's 2004 opponent who nearly ousted him, earning a surprising 49% of the vote.
Democratic State Auditor Crit Luallen won her reelection campaign in a similar landslide, and, according to some sources, is being touted as an opponent to Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minorty Leader, next year.
In Mississippi, Democrat John Eaves Jr. lost the Governor's race to incumbent Republican Haley Barbour, but Barbour's 58%-42% victory is smaller than most had expected. Barbour's key to victory lay along the state's Gulf Coast, where he is applauded for his response to Hurricane Katrina. Barbour won nearly 3 our of 4 votes cast in the Biloxi, Gulfport area. Mississippi Republicans won all statewide races, except Attorney General, where Democrat Jim Hood won reelection in a similar landslide to Barbour.
Democrats saw their own success in Mississippi, where they won back control of the State Senate, which they lost in 2004, and increased their majority in the State House.
The big news in state legislature races was in Virginia, where Democrats won control of the Virginia Senate for the first time since 1995. Democrats picked up four seats, including the Fairfax County seat of Republican Jeanmarie Devolites-Davis, wife of US Representative Tom Davis, to take a 21-19 majority in the state Senate. Democrats picked up three seats in the House of Delegates to narrow GOP control 54-44 with 2 Independents.
In New Jersey, where a ballot issue to borrow over $400 million to fund stem-cell research failed, the state legislature did not see big changes. Democratic State Senator Ellen Karcher was defeated in a nasty race by Republican State Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck and in the same district, Democratic Assemblyman Michael Panter, who won his 2005 election by 73 votes, was also defeated. Karcher's defeat was cancelled out by two surprise State Senate victories in South Jersey. In the first district, which includes Cape May and Cumberland Counties, Democratic State Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew defeated State Senator Nicholas Asselta. In the next door Atlantic City-based 2nd District, Democrat Jim Whelan defeated Republican Jim McCullough, but Whelan's assembly seat was lost to the Republicans. Democrats picked up the seat of Republican Bill Baroni in the 14th district. Baroni was elected to the State Senate, replaced Peter Inverso. Democrat Wayne De Angelo won Baroni's Assembly seat and Linda Greenstein, a Democrat, was reelected.
In Ohio, Republican Bob Latta narrowly defeated Steve Buehrer to win the Republican nomination for the Ohio 5th Congressional District special election on December 11th. He will face Democrat Robin Weirauch. Also, Janet Creighton, the Republican Mayor of Canton, located in the battleground 16th Congressional district, an open race next year, was defeated by Democrat James Healy 53%-47%.
In Texas, Democrats picked up a State House seat in Fort Worth in a Special Election, narrowing the Republican majority to 79-71. In Maine, Democrats won an open Republican state House seat, expanding their majority there.
Democrats saw mixed successes in Indiana, where Democrat Bart Peterson, Indianapolis' mayor went down in a shocking defeat against Republican Greg Ballard, but Democrats were fairly successful in other Indiana cities, winning the mayor's races in Fort Wayne, South Bend, Portage, Bloomington, and Elkhart. Democrats defeated incumbent Republican mayors in Anderson and Madison and won an open mayor's seat in Kokomo. Muncie is too close to call, but it appears the Democrat is ahead.
A ballot issue allowing for school vouchers failed in Utah, as did a tax hike on cigarettes in Oregon.
The Mayors of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Columbus, and San Francisco, all Democrats, were reelected, while the Republican mayors of Charlotte, Jacksonville and Tuscon were also reelected. Democrat Michael Nutter was elected Mayor of Philadelphia.
Locally, in New York;
Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan was reelected in the only real race in New York City.
On Long Island; Suffolk County Democrats had a great night. Democratic County Executive Steve Levy won reelection, as expected. The Democratic town supervisors of the former Republican strongholds of Brookhaven Islip and Riverhead all won reelection. Democrats picked up a seat in the Suffolk Legislature to increase their majority to 11-7.
Nassau County saw little change, a pale comparison to two years ago, when Democrats won the DA seat. Republicans took over the Long Beach city council and votes rejected the idea of creating the position of mayor. Mayor Ralph Suozzi of Glen Cove was reelected, while the Town Supervisors of Hempstead, North Hempstead and Oyster Bay all kept their positions comfortably. In the County Legislature, Democrats appear to have kept their 10-9 majority, but failed to come close to ousting any GOP incumbent. Republican John Ciotti, the most vulnerable Republican, defeated his Democratic opponent Ali Marza 57%-43%. Democrat Jeffrey Toback of Oceanside kept his seat by a 54%-46% margin, as did Democrat Diane Yaturo of Glen Cove, who won 57%-43%. Democrat Joseph Scannell of Baldwin defeated his Republican opponent 55%-45%. Republicans have not conceded in the 14th legislative district of David Meijias of Farmingdale, who ran unsuccesfully for Congress against Peter King last year. Meijias leads his Republican opponent by 222 votes, a 51%-49% margin with 300 absentee ballots to be counted. A Meijias loss would throw control of the county legislature back to the GOP.
Survey USA;
Coleman (R)- 46%
Franken (D)- 45%
Coleman (R)- 44%
Ciresi (D)- 44%
Coleman is surprisingly weak, and Franken is surprisingly strong. Ciresi doesn't really shock me. Rasmussen's numbers are a little more believable;
Coleman (R)- 49%
Franken (D)- 42%
Coleman (R)- 46%
Ciresi (D)- 43%
Tossup
Even without Tom Davis in the race;
Survey USA;
Warner, Mark (D)- 57%
Gilmore (R)- 35%
Likely Democrat
Survey USA;
Collins (R)- 55%
Allen (D)- 38%
Susan Collins was considered a very vulnerable GOP incumbent, still is. She's not as popular as her GOP colleague Olympia Snowe, and she's facing a popular Democratic congressman.
Likely Republican
Survey USA;
Smith (R)- 48%
Merkley (D)- 39%
Smith (R)- 45%
Novick (D)- 39%
I'm amazed that Novick, less widely known statewide than Jeff Merkley is doing better than him. Smith is vulnerable, but Democrats will have to work hard for it.
Slight Lean Republican.
Survey USA;
Pearce (R)- 43%
Chavez (D)- 48%
Wilson (R)- 44%
Chavez (D)- 48%
Diane Denish holds a similar lead, Bill Richardson a commanding one, neither is running. Survey USA did not poll Tom Udall, but he held huge leads in the previous survey, where Chavez trailed the GOP candidates.
if Udall jumps in the race, then moves to Lean Democrat, but with Chavez, this is a Tossup.
The Virginia GOP has decided to pick it's nominee for John Warner's open Senate seat by convention next year rather than primary.
Two Republicans, conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore and moderate Fairfax County Congressman Tom Davis, are considering running for the Senate seat. Both are trailing to assumed Democratic nominee former Governor Mark Warner by nearly 30% in recent polls. A convention would avoid a bloody primary fight which can weaken the eventual nominee.
A convention favors conservatives and thus favors Gilmore. It could mean Tom Davis may not even make a bid for the Senate seat (and instead take on Jim Webb in 2012.) If he runs, his open House seat becomes a top Democratic target. If he doesn't run, Democrats would have a harder (although not impossible) time taking his House seat.
Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz, who served six years as State House Minority Leader and was the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor last night, has decided to run for the Alaska's At-Large Congressional seat against longtime Republican Don Young.
Berkowitz is the strongest challenger for the seat in years. Young has usually managed to get around 70% of the vote in every election. Last year he got an abnormally small 56% against a relative unknown, Diane Benson, who got 40%.
Although the district is R+14 and went 61% for Bush in 2004, A Democratic victory is not out of the question here, especially with Berkowitz. Young's approval rating is in the tank and he's marred in scandal.
The other news about this is that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father held the seat before young, will probably not run, making it more likely he'll run for Ted Stevens' seat in the US Senate.
With Berkowitz in, and Young's tanking approval ratings, I put this at Lean Republican
Wilson (R) 33 Richardson (D) 62
Wilson (R) 38 Udall (D) 56
Wilson (R) 48 Chavez (D) 44
Wilson (R) 46 Madrid (D) 45
Pearce (R) 36 Richardson (D) 60
Pearce (R) 56 Chavez (D) 35
Pearce (R) 54 Madrid (D) 38
Interesting that Pearce does better than Wilson statewide, but Udall and Richardson would be the sure wins for this seat.
They also didn't poll Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who is being coerced to run for the seat.
If all things play out the way they're playing out, a Wilson-Madrid race would be the best bet for the Democrats, and that didn't go well last year.
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.
Domenici has taken Wilson under his wing in recent years, and as he has gotten older, Wilson’s name has topped the list of potential heirs [...]
[S]he also faces the same U.S. Attorney scandal baggage that would have affected Domenici’s reelection campaign. Fired U.S. attorney David Iglesias said both lawmakers pressured him to be more aggressive with his corruption cases during the 2006 campaign.
Rasmussen had the race within five a month ago.
CNN/WMUR has her up 16- 54%-38%
Lean Democrat
This is about the best news possible right now for the Democrats. Domenici is an institution in New Mexico and the only Republican to win an outright majority statewide this decade. His retirement throws this seat into one of the most competitive races in the nation.
The GOP bench is minimal; with only New Mexico's two GOP Representatives, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, being the only formindable candidates. Wilson is marred by her connection to the Prosecutor Firing Scandal and Pearce isn't a major player statewide.
Democrats have a deeper bench including Rep. Tom Udall, Governor Bill Richardson (should he drop out of the Presidential race) former US Attorney John Kelly, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Attorney General Patricia Madrid, and Lt. Governor Diane Denish.
The Democrats have the upper hand, it's their year, all the Democratic Presidential candidates are polling well against the GOP canddiates and they have the better candidates, but because this is one of the top five most political competitive states in the country in my opinion (after Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia) I'd rather this one as a Tossup.
And it was just three years ago when they were comparing the Democrats to the Whigs.
