Special Elections Today

Two special elections today, one in Northwest Ohio, another in Eastern Virginia, for Congressional seats left open by the deaths of two Republicans.

In Ohio, Democrat Robin Weinrauch has a shot at picking up the seat of the late Republican Paul Gilmor, but she faces Bob Latta, son of the guy who represented the district before Gilmor. Latta's internal poll yesterday showed him trialing Weinrauch in a district Bush won over 60% of the vote in.

In Virginia, Democrat Phil Forgit, an Iraq war vet is running against Republican Bob Whitman for the seat of the late Jo Ann Davis who died in October. Forgit is an underdog. The seat was won by Bush in 2004 and Republican candidates for Governor (Kilgore) in 2005 and Senator (Allen) in 2006.

If you're in one of these two districts, GO OUT AND VOTE TODAY!

LA-04: McCrery To Retire

This is a pretty shocking announcement out of Northwest Louisiana. Rep. Jim McCrery (R-Louisiana), who is the ranking Republican member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, will retire next year. The district, the fourth district of Louisiana, includes the entire Shreveport area, 3/4 of the Louisiana/Texas border, and the west half of the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

McCrery has represented the Shreveport area in Western and Northwestern Louisiana for nearly 20 years. McCrery won 55% of the vote in 2006 against two Democrats who received a combined 43% of the vote.

The seat leans Republican, but a strong Democrat, such as former Shreveport mayor Keith Hightower, can pick off this seat.

NJ-07: Whitman's Daughter to Run

Kate Whitman, daughter of the only Republican to win a statewide election in New Jersey in 20 years; former Governor Christine Todd Whitman, announced that she will run for the New Jersey 7th Congressional District seat being vacated by Mike Ferguson.

The district, which meanders around Northern New Jersey from Roselle, Cranford, Scotch Plains through Somerset and Hunterdon Counties, has a slight Republican tilt. Whitman, the mom, won it in both her gubernatorial races, but McGreevey and Corzine won it in the past two Governor's races.

If Whitman gets the nod, she will face State Assemblywoman Linda Stender, who narrowly lost to Ferguson last year 49%-48%.

IL-14: Hastert Resigns...Now

Dennis Hastert's two decade service in the United States House of Representatives which culminated in being the longest serving Republican Speaker of the House came to abrupt end tonight.

The Illinois Republican, who was expected to leave the House soon, resigned effective tonight. His seat will be filled by a special election that will be called by Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich, likely to be held on February 5th to coincide with the Democratic primary in Illinois.

What is that important? Well, Illinois' favorite son, Barack Obama, is running on the Democratic side, and turnout will be huge in Illinois on the Democratic side and it will help the Democratic nominee for the seat.

The district is R+4. George W. Bush won 55% of the vote here. It streches from the Chicago suburbs of Elgin and Aurora through a long swath of Northern Illinios including Dixon to the outskirts of the Quad Cities near the Mississippi River.

Democrat John Laesch won 40% of the vote in 2006 and is running for the open seat, as are Republican State Senator Chris Lauzen of Aurora, who lost the race for Illinois Comptroller in 1998, Republican Mayor Kevin Burns of Geneva, and Republican businessman and former statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, who has run in the GOP primaries for Governor in 2006 and Senator in 2002 and 2004. Democratic candidates include Laesch, attorney Jotham Stein or businessman Bill Foster.

Hastert's depature leaves three Republican seats open, including the open seats og Ohio-5 and Virginia-1, left open by the deaths of Paul Gilmor in September and Jo Ann Davis in October. Both seats are holding special elections on December 11. Republicans currently have 199 members in the House of Representatives, the first time their number has dropped below 200 since 1994. All 233 Democratic seats are filled, but Julia Carson of Indiana is being treated for terminal cancer and is absent from Washington.

Louisiana Governor-elect Bobby Jindal will vacate his seat in January, meaning the GOP will not have a full 202 seats until at least February.

MS-Sen: Trent Lott To Resign

Just when the Mississippi GOP thought it was safe when Thad Cochran decided to run again, this happens.

If he resigns before the end of the year, there will be a special election in the spring, if he resigns after the first of the year, the special election with coincide with the general election in November, which means Mississippi, like Wyoming, will elect two Senators at once. He's expected to leave before the end of year when coincidently new ethics rules passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress that would ban members of Congress from lobbying on the Hill for two year after they leave office.

An open seat would give the Democrats a chance to win a Mississippi Senate seat for the first time since 1982. Former Attorney General Mike Moore, Current Attorney General Jim Hood and Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove are both potential Democratic candidates for the seat. GOP Governor Haley Barbour will appoint a caretaker for the seat who may or may not run for reelection in 2008. They include GOP Congressmen Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering. Pickering has stated he was retiring from his Congressional seat next year.

IN-07: Carson will not run for reelection

Julia Carson, terminally ill from cancer, will not run for reelection in 2008 leaving the Democratic-leaning Indianapolis-based seat open.

This should make the seat slightly safer, but after the surprising defeat of Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, a Democrat, in elections earlier this month, who knows?

NY-19: Saul Drops Out

New York's most vulnerable Democratic Congressman caught a huge break.

Andrew Saul has dropped out of the race for the NY-19th Congressional seat in the Lower Hudson Valley. Saul was seeking the GOP nomination to take on freshman Democrat John Hall, who narrowly defeated Sue Kelly last year in the district, which includes the farthest northern New York City suburbs.

Open House Seats

Democrats:

Colorado-2 (Udall)
Maine-1 (Allen)
New Mexico-3 (Udall)
New York-21 (McNulty)

Republicans:
Alabama-2 (Everett)
Arizona-1 (Renzi)
California-52 (Hunter)
Illinois-11 (Weller)
Illinois-14 (Hastert)*
Illinois-18 (LaHood)
Minnesota-3 (Ramstad)
Mississippi-3 (Pickering)
New Jersey-3 (Saxton)
New Jersey-7 (Ferguson)
New Mexico-1 (Wilson)
New Mexico-3 (Pearce)
Ohio-15 (Pryce)
Ohio-16 (Regula)
Wyoming-AL (Cubin)

No wonder the GOPers are backing Bush, they are so many lame ducks.

*-Hastert has hinted that he may resign before his term is up triggering a special election

NJ-07: Ferguson Will Retire

This came by complete surprise. I think he's afraid he's too vulnerable and now he can vote like an Alabama Republican.

This opens the seat up for Tom Kean Jr. who ran for the US Senate last year. He will face Linda Stender, who narrowly lost to Ferguson.

Kean probably has the upper hand, but this is not New Jersey's most Republican district.

UPDATE: Kean says he's not running. Stender has an excellent shot at this seat.

IL-14: Hastert Resigning, Really This Time

He will step down at some point this year.
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert bid his colleagues farewell in a final speech Thursday, expressing worry about the "breakdown of civility" in politics.
Funny, considering it was under his Speakership that the breakdown in civility began.

Hastert's resignation will trigger a Special Election, perhaps the most contentious one so far in the 110th Congress. (MA-05 was pretty contentious, but to me, it was never a question who would win, it was just by how much).

Hastert's seat was considered a potential Demcoratic pickup in 2008. If Hastert is gone by January 1st, Governor Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, may schedule a special election for the seat on February 5th, the same day as the Democratic primary, which may bring out a slew of Democratic voters who are out for Obama, their native son, increasing the chances of a Democratic pickup.

HOWEVER

February 5th may just be a primary election day, setting up two candidates for a later general election date, that may favor Republicans.

Hastert may also be delaying retirement due to the fact the GOP already has two vacancies and will soon have a third.

Virginia 1 (Jo Ann Davis) and Ohio 5 (Paul Gilmor) are both open until elections on December 11th and Louisiana 1 (Bobby Jindal) will be open soon because Jindal will take the oath of office as Louisiana's new governor.

WY-AL: Cubin to retire

Two in one day

Wyoming's Barbara Cubin, who barely won reelection last year in a state where Bush won 69% of the vote, is retiring next year.

This is good for the GOP, as the seat is risky with Cubin, but safe without her.

NJ-03: Saxton to retire

A huge blow to the GOP.

Saxton's district is D+3. Bush narrowly lost it, but Corzine and Menendez both won it.

State Senator John Adler is running as a Democrat for the seat. While there are some Republican state legislators in the district, Adler is running in what would be a Democratic year in an open Democratic seat.

Giuliani is the only thing that can save Republicans here, and even then, this district is in South Jersey; Cherry Hill and Mount Holly, and not in North Jersey where Giuliani is strong.

Slight Lean Democrat.

IL-14: Hastert Resigning

We knew he was retiring, did we know he was resigning?

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert will not complete his term. He will apparently announce his resignation tomorrow triggering a special election.

Hastert's resignation, if before December 11th, would lead to three vacant Republican seats, leaving them with a total of 199 votes. After yesterday's election in Massachusetts, all 233 Democratic seats are filled.

Updated: Open Republican Seats

Terry Everett- Alabama 2- R+13
Ray LaHood- Illinois 18- R+5
Dennis Hastert- Illinois 14- R+5
Chip Pickering- Mississippi 3- R+14
Deborah Pryce- Ohio 15- R+1
Jerry Weller- Illinois 11- R+1
Rick Renzi- Arizona 1- R+2
Duncan Hunter- California 52- R+9
Jim Ramstad- Minnesota 3- R+1
Ralph Regula- Ohio 16- R+3
David Hobson- Ohio 7- R+7
Heather Wilson- New Mexico 1- D+2

OH-7: Hobson Will Retire

Yet another Republican Congressman has called it quits.

Ohio Republican David Hobson became the 12th Republican Congressman, third in Ohio, to announce he will not run for reelection next year.

Hobson's district, which includes Xenia, Springfield and some of Columbus' southern and eastern suburbs, like Whitehall, leans Republican. Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004. Ted Strickland won the district last year, but Sherrod Brown lost it.

Virginia Picks Convention

The Virginia GOP has decided to pick it's nominee for John Warner's open Senate seat by convention next year rather than primary.

Two Republicans, conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore and moderate Fairfax County Congressman Tom Davis, are considering running for the Senate seat. Both are trailing to assumed Democratic nominee former Governor Mark Warner by nearly 30% in recent polls. A convention would avoid a bloody primary fight which can weaken the eventual nominee.

A convention favors conservatives and thus favors Gilmore. It could mean Tom Davis may not even make a bid for the Senate seat (and instead take on Jim Webb in 2012.) If he runs, his open House seat becomes a top Democratic target. If he doesn't run, Democrats would have a harder (although not impossible) time taking his House seat.

AL-AK: A Race For A Change

Usually one of the safest Republican seats in the country, a recent poll shows Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz leading 17 term Congressman Don Young 51%-45.5%.

Despite representating the entire state of Alaska, where President Bush won 61% of the vote, Young has been awash in scandal and his disapproval is at 50%.

Ethan Berkowitz is not the only challenger to Young, 2006 candidate Diane Benson who won 40%, the highest percentage for a Democratic candidate since 1990, is also running again.

Young is also facing a primary challenger in State Rep. Gabrielle DeVour of Kodiak. DeVour may make this race similiar to the 2006 Gubernatorial race, where Democratic challenger Tony Knowles seemed to be heading for certain victory against unpopular incumbent Republican Governor Frank Murkowski, until Murkowski was defeated by current Governor Sarah Palin in the primary. Although the race was close, Palin pulled out a victory.

This race is going to depend on the Republican Primary. Slight Lean Republican

IN-9: Hill To Vote To Override

He explains it all in a letter to a constiuent posted on Open Left;

Dear _____,
Last week the President vetoed H.R. 976, The Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007. I am disappointed that a more balanced State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill was not put forth. As such, I strongly implore the President and Democratic Leadership to work together to craft a bill that ensures equitable benefits for all states, as well as an expansion of the program.

From the very start of this debate, I have been fighting to ensure that Indiana receives its fair share of government funding. For far too long, Hoosiers have been major contributors to the federal government without receiving an equitable share of the benefits. We've seen this time and time again in the areas of transportation and housing funds. As your elected representative,

I will fight to protect all of our precious resources, and that includes the tax dollars of my constituents. Our nation will never truly move toward real change and reform if the mechanisms in place to fund those reforms are not solid and equitable to those paying for them.

However, providing healthcare for our nation's children is simply too important to abandon. Therefore, even though I know the veto will be upheld, I will vote to override the President's veto in an effort to again show my support for the program and desire to move towards a fairer bill.

I want to once again be very clear that I fully support the SCHIP program. Guaranteeing access to health insurance for all children is not only a worthy goal, but it is the right thing to do. In fact, I have consistently supported the SCHIP program during my previous terms in Congress, and recently voted to reauthorize the program through November 16th of this year.

We must not lose sight of the fact that the longer this issue remains unresolved, 4 million children will continue without access to health insurance. As this process moves forward, I will continue to push for changes to the bill that addresses my concerns.

Sincerely,

Representative
Baron P. Hill
Ninth District of Indiana
U.S. House of Representatives

Hill was one of the few Democrats to vote against the bill.

In related news, Hill is facing the guy he defeated last year, lost to in 2004 and defeated in 2002; Republican Mike Sodrel.

Sodrel one once before in a Presidential year, although his victory was alot smaller than Hill's two victories, if not for the Libertarian nominee last year, Hill might have lost. Slight Lean Democrat

OH-16: Regula Out

Another GOP Congressman has announced his retirement, opening up a potentially competitive seat.

Ralph Regula, who has been in office since 1973, has announced he is retiring next year. His district, the Ohio 16th, sits in North Central Ohio between Cleveland and Columbus and includes Canton and Ashland. Bush won 54% of the vote in the district in 2004 and it's PVI is R+4.

Ohio State Senator John Boccieri has already announced he was running before Regula's retirement announcement. He will be a strong candidate.

Slight Lean Republican

AK-AL: Berkowitz In

Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz, who served six years as State House Minority Leader and was the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor last night, has decided to run for the Alaska's At-Large Congressional seat against longtime Republican Don Young.

Berkowitz is the strongest challenger for the seat in years. Young has usually managed to get around 70% of the vote in every election. Last year he got an abnormally small 56% against a relative unknown, Diane Benson, who got 40%.

Although the district is R+14 and went 61% for Bush in 2004, A Democratic victory is not out of the question here, especially with Berkowitz. Young's approval rating is in the tank and he's marred in scandal.

The other news about this is that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father held the seat before young, will probably not run, making it more likely he'll run for Ted Stevens' seat in the US Senate.

With Berkowitz in, and Young's tanking approval ratings, I put this at Lean Republican