The Amazing Disappearing New York State GOP

Is the New York Republican Party even relevant anymore?

A question that needs to be asked. We all know that the New York GOP is reeling. The party last all four major statewide races in landslides in 2006 (even won where the Democrat was sinking in scandal). They lost three House seats and nearly lost three more. They lost three State Assembly seats, where they were already a super minority, and lost a State Senate seat in Westchester. They narrowly kept a Queen State Senate seat where Republican Serphin Maltese, in office since 1986, won by a mere 783 votes (and that with the Democratic party in the area endorsing him.) The icing on the cake of death was this month's special election on Long Island for a State Senate seat where a Democrat won a Republican's seat.

Can it get any worse for the New York GOP? Well, they still control the State Senate, by a narrow margin. Two more seats will tie the chamber 31-31 with Democratic Lieutennant Governor David Paterson breaking the tie, effectively giving control to the Democrats. The Republicans don't hold much else, and they hold New York City's Mayoral Seat pretty much in name only.

Why is the New York GOP in such disrepair? Well, I can trace the downfall back about 17 years. Through the Reagan years, Rockefeller Republicans (the socially liberal, fiscally conservative former Democrats who kept Nelson Rockefeller in the Governor's chair for 14 years) dominated the New York landscape. In the 1970's, they kept Jacob Javitz in power, and later Al D'Amato. They elected Malcolm Wilson and kept 1982 GOP candidate Lewis Lehrman within striking distance of being Governor. They kept New York's House seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley in GOP control through the 1980's. Then came 1990.

The 1990 New York Gubernatorial Race was the beginning of the downfall. Democrat Mario Cuomo was up for reelection. He was still fairly popular, but after eight years, his popularity was beginning to fade. With crime at it's peak in New York City and with white flight bringing down Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, law and order issues became prevalent. Cuomo, an opponent of the death penalty, was considered soft on crime to many New Yorkers, however his stance on social issues and on economic issues were favorable with New Yorkers. Seeing a chance to defeat him, the GOP nominated a candidate who can win over New York's liberal voters, but also satisfy their desire for tough leadership on crime and drugs. They nominated Pierre Rinfret (almost at random after 19 other people said no), and made him the "crime and punishment" candidate.

Only one problem...social and economic conservatives HATED him. Rinfret (pronounced rin-FRAY). The Montreal-born, Queens raised economist had been an advisor to Democratic presidents Kennedy and Johnson, was pro-choice and supported gay rights. In New York politics, the minor parties (such as the Conservative, Right-to-Life, Liberal, Independence and Working Families parties) can choose to either nominate on their line a major party candidate, which is usually the case, or nominate someone on their own. Democrats usually vie for the left-leaning Liberal and Working Families party nods to increase their vote numbers (and in 1990 Cuomo received those nominations), while the Republicans usually chase after the Conservative and Right-to-Life party nominations, while the Independence party can sometimes be the nomination that throws the election one way or the other (specifically in close elections).

Well Rinfret did not get the Conservative or Right-t0-Life nominations. The Conservative Party in New York had been strong before, having elected a US Senator, James Buckley, on their ticket in 1970. (Buckley lost in 1976 when he ran as a Republican.) The Conservatives nominated Brooklyn-bred Herbert London on their line, while the Right-to-Life party nominated Louis Wein. This led to a three way race among voters on the right (who weren't the majority as is ).

Cuomo won 53% of the vote, which clinched him the election either way, but Rinfret, the Republican, won 21%, while London took 20%. London's Conservatives nearly overtook the Republican candidate. This essentially and legally would've reduced the Republican party to a third party in New York, with the Conservatives being the main opposition. The Republican party had been damaged.

Over the next few years, in an effort to prevent a split like 1990, the GOP began nominating candidates favorable to the Conservatives. This didnt play well in liberal-leaning New York. Although it was successful with George Pataki (who probably would've lost reelection in 2002 if not for Tom Golisano btw), it cost them numerous state legislature seats, Congressional seats, nearly ousted Al D'amato in 1992 and finally did oust him in 1998.

Today, 17 years after the 1990 Republican Civil War, the New York GOP has been reduced to essentially the 1990 New York Conservative party (with a few GOP holdovers). What was the New York GOP has seemingly become Democratic-leaning independents, willing to vote for only certain Republicans (aka Pataki and Giuliani.) The rightward shift of the Republican party in social issues and economic both out of necessity and to fit in nationally, has reduced the number of staunch Republicans in the state. While Republicans still hold a dominating force in name only, especially in the suburbs, these Republicans are really swing voters who have been leaning Democratic over the years. The four Democratic statewide victories of 69%, 67%, 60% and 58% in 2006 show that these Republican voters are no longer 100% loyal to their party.

New York Republicans are disappearing...and fast.