Sunday, March 11, 2007

Hempstead Supervisor: A Conservative Democrat on Long Island? Where?!

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi has an idea...abandon his party's liberal base.

The super genius who decided to waste half a year taking on the most poweful man in New York in last year's governor's race is trying to get his consumer affairs commissioner, Roger Bogsted, to run against popular Republican Kate Murray for town supervisor. The problem? Bogstead is the chair of the Nassau County Conservative Party.

The Conservative Party and the Democratic Party usually do not mix. In fact, sometimes, the Conservative Party and the Republican Party don't mix. The idea is smart on paper, take the Conservative voters, who usually number around 7,500 and pull them to the Democrats, and that may be enough of a margin to defeat the Republican candidate in a town that's trending toward the Democrats. Hempstead has been run by Republicans ever since the town's government was formed, but Democrats have carried the county in national, state and even county elections. More than 75% of the town is represented by Democrat Carolyn McCarthy in Congress, anad John Kerry won 54% of the vote in the town.

The idiocy of the idea; The reason the Republicans no longer hold the town's main Congressional seat, the reason George W. Bush still lost the town, even though he was fairly popular on Long Island, is BECAUSE of the Conservatives. The Conservative Party largely exists because the state's Republican Party does not normally follow the national party on social issues...and Long Island is primarily a socially moderate to liberal place. The Conservatives tend to vote for Conservatives or te Republicans nominated by Conservatives...they don't like Democrats much.

The Democrats in the town are fairly liberal, to the left of most suburban Democrats in the country...they're not going to be too keen on nominated a Conservative (forget the fact he's the CHAIR of the county party.) While Democrats on the island have managed to win with being nominated on the Conservative party line, it's usually in situation where there's a popular Democrat, running for reelection who has appeal on both sides of the political specturm (see Suffolk County DA Thomas Spota.) Bogstead is no Spota and Hempstead, despite being a Republican stronghold, is not a Conservative one.

Suozzi would be better off have Bogstead run AS a Conservative and make it a three-way race against a strong Democrat.

No comments: