New Blue States?

States long out of range for the Democrats, may turn blue in 2008.

It's usually the case after a two-term president's replacement is elected. States he won the previous election suddenly are in play.

In 1964, Lyndon Johnson swept the entire country minus the Deep South and Arizona, but Nixon won a large amount of Johnson states in 1968, some (like Utah, North Dakota and Nebraska,) by huge margins

Nixon swept 49 states in 1972, but his party's nominee lost in 1976, with Democrat Jimmy Carter sweeping the South, a region swept by Nixon. Like Nixon, Reagan swept 49 states in 1984, and even though Dukakis did not lose a close race four years later, eight states Reagan carried went to Dukakis, and many more were close.

Of the states Bill Clinton won in his reelection in 1996, Bush carried 11 of them in 2000 and 13 of them in 2004. It should be no surprise more Red States in 2004 will be in play than Blue States.

Take Colorado, a state where John Kerry received a rather surprising 47% in 2004. Democrats picked up the state legislature, a Senate seat and a House seat in 2004, and won the Governor's race and another House seat in 2006. Democrats currently dominate the state government and the Congressional delegation. Democratic power has grown in the suburbs of Denver, in Southern Colorado, in the mountains and in Larimer County, north of Denver, which is becoming the new swing area of the state. The 2008 Democratic National Convention is to be held in Denver in 2008, which can help their chances there.

Virginia is quickly heading in the Democrats' direction, there's no question on this. Democrats won the Governor's race in 2005, despite trailing through most of the campaign. In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican George Allen to win the second statewide race for the Democrats in as many years. The fast growing population of Northern Virginia are becoming more like the Northeast US than the South. John Kerry was the first Democrat in over 30 years to win Fairfax County and Governor Kaine and Senator Webb carried all three of major Northern Virginia counties. A Democrat who wins these three in 2008 may very well carry the state.

Taking Colorado and Virginia alone, with all the states Kerry won, would hand a Democrat the White House, but Colorado and Virginia may not be as easy as the already important swing states, like Iowa and New Mexico, which Kerry lost but Gore won, or Ohio and Florida, the Mother and Father swing states. Florida, however, may be more difficult for Democrats than Ohio, as they haven't had much like statewide, even in 2006.

Democrats will probably poll better than Kerry in states like Nevada, Montana, North Carolina,
Arkansas and Missouri, as these states have been good the Democrats in the recent elections. While Nevada's governor is a Republican and Democrats narrowly lost two House seats in the state, Democrats took a few open statewide seats and have control of half the state legislature. In Montana, Democrats hold nearly all statewide elected offices sans At-Large Representative and Secretary of State, while in North Carolina, Democrats control the state government and the House delegation. Missouri just saw a Democrat defeat an incumbent Senator and Arkansas's entire government is dominated by Democrats...of the southern conservative type.

Of course, the underlying questions is, who do the parties nominate. Hillary Clinton may underperform for the Democrats, while Rudy Giuliani may overperform, although I doubt that will be the case. Polarizing candidates or candidates who run bad campaigns can have a huge effect on the electoral map (see Mike Dukakis)