Sunday, April 29, 2007

Another Blue Wave In 2008?

It's too early to tell, but if things don't change for the GOP soon, Robert Novak thinks it could happen.

At least 10 Republicans only narrowly kept their seats in the last election. Novak thinks at this point, nine to eleven Republican seats can flip. Among them;

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-New Mexico) who kept her seat by less than 900 votes and has since been marred by her involvement in the Prosecutor Firing Scandals.

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pennsylvania) who kept his seat by about 3,000 votes in 2006, despite being heavily targeted. His district was won by Kerry.

Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-New Jersey) also kept his seat by a little over 3,000 votes.

Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) who won reelection by just over 1,000 votes in a very competitive district

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) who, despite sitting in a heavily Republican district, is not well liked. She narrowly won a 2005 Special Election against Democrat Iraq war vet Paul Hackett and won a full term even more narrowly against Democrat Victoria Wulsin.

Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nevada) who kept his seat against Democrat Tessa Hafen by a mere 4,000 votes.

Also possbily in jeopardy; Rep. Robin Hayes (R-North Carolina) whose heavily military district only sent him back to Washington by 329 votes over liberal Larry Kissell. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Florida) who may have never legitimately won his seat. Rep. Chris Shays (R-Connecticut), New England last Republucan, Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Illinois) whose district is trending left, Rep. Jim Walsh (R-New York) who narrowly won reelection against a Democrat who didn't get much attention until the last minute and is running again in 2008, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-Michigan) who's competitive district wasn't even targeted in 2006, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Washington) whose district is within reach for a Democrat, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colorado) who survived largely thanks to a third party candidacy by a man who is now running against her as a Democrat, and of course the seats of the apparently corrupt John Doolittle (R-California) and Rick Renzi (R-Arizona).

Yeah, Republicans have a PR miracle to pull off to avoid getting swept twice in one decade.

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