AZ-01: Renzi Staying On

Despite the fact that he is under federal investigation into shady land deals, Congressman Rick Renzi (R-Arizona) is not resigning. Rumors have been flying all day that he may resign from Congress as soon as today, sparking a contentious special election battle for his fairly competitive seat.

I highly doubt Renzi will last that long. He is, after all, under a cloud of controversy. When and if the feds indict him, he will be gone and the Democrats may very well pick up yet another seat in the House.

Nevertheless, the chances of him running for reelection in 2008 are slim to none in my opinion (unless he wants to jump to #1 on the Democratic target list.) Chris Van Hollen better be prepped for a special election by the end of the year.

If Renzi resigns and Democrats win his seat, the Democrats will take a 5-3 advantage in the Arizona house delegation, something they haven't had since 1966. Currently the delegation is tied 4-4, the first time that's happened since 1994.