Bush’s Last Chance

September.

That's the do or die month moderate Republicans gave President Bush this week for them to see progress in Iraq before they will join the Democrats in declaring this war unwinnable.

It is my belief personally that no matter what General Petraeus says in September, some Republicans will declare progress is being made and a little more time will bring us to "victory." Let's face it, Petraeus is not going to come back from Iraq and say "you know, this isn't working, We can't win this." It's blatantly obvious he is going to be positive and optimistic about this, he HAS to be.

The question is, will the Republicans in Congress be able to see through the obvious optimism, if they need to, or will they take Petraeus' words and use them to support another six more months of war that will end no different.

It is unlikely, if you ask me, there will be any real progress come September. It would take a miracle. Al-Anbar Province is getting better, but Diyala Province is getting worse. The situation is at a standstill and the people are not seeing any sort of light at the end of the tunnel. If this holds in September, the pressure will be on the GOP to continue with this situation the way it is or to capitulate to popular opinion and get us out of the war.

In a democracy, the people will eventually get their way, no matter how long it takes and no matter whether it's the right way or wrong way. The Democrats won control of Congress last year in part because the people voted to get us into exit mode in Iraq, but without a supermajority or the support of the President, there are limited options for Congress right now to stop the President. If nothing changes when the next election appears over the horizon, those who wish to leave Iraq, as the people want, will be the favorites to win. In order to get the public to turn back in support of Bush's Iraq policies, there needs to be proof that it is WORTH supporting, something that has not existed in about three and a half years. That is, assuming, there is any proof that it is still worth supporting.

Come January 2009, if nothing changes, a Democratic President and a larger Democratic Congressional majority will end the war and there would be very little the GOP can do to stop it. In the process, the GOP will see their agenda fly out the Capitol window. In an effort to save their agenda, the GOP may have to, in the end, capitulate to public opinion and cut from the President on the war, no matter how optimistic Petraeus sounds.

Still, there will be those on the Republican side who will never cut from the President, no matter how far in jeopardy his or her party is. The question will be, will they be a small enough number to be considered irrelevant or large enough to keep the votes for withdrawal and exit plans below veto-proof margins? The Democrats need roughly another sixty votes to threaten the President with a veto-proof margin. Only a dozen Republicans went to the White House last week, and only two; Walter Jones of North Carolina and Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland have fully broke with the President on the war. The Democrats still need to convince a HUGE number of Republicans to take their heads off the chopping block at the end of the summer.

I'm not very optimistic that the GOP will cut with the President and I'm also not optimistic that progress will be made. I think it may be safe to say come 2009 there will be a Democratic President and at least 240 Democratic members of the House of Representatives and 54 Democratic US Senators. They will be elected reluctantly by the people to pull us out of Iraq…and even then, it'll be 2010 at the earliest when we leave. (When the Democratic Congress faces voters in the midterms)

On the other hand, it'll be interesting to see George W. Bush's speech at next year's Republican National Convention…assuming they allow him to even show up.