VA-Sen, VA-11: The Tom Davis Question

Democrats have a great chance at a big victory in Virginia, one way or another.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that Sen. John Warner (R-Virginia) is on the verge of retirement. After winning back to back statewide elections for Governor and Senator in 2005 and 2006, an open Senate seat in what very well may be a swing state in a Democratic year is gold for the Democratic Party.

The top Republican candidate would have to be somebody who can hold his base and win over the moderate independents in Virginia who always tended to lean slightly toward the Republicans.

Enter Rep. Tom Davis, the moderate Republican representing Fairfax and Prince William Counties in the Washington DC suburbs. Davis is perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Virginia delegation. In fact, he may well sit slightly to the left of Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher from the panhandle region. Davis is the most likely choice for Warner's Senate seat and would be a formidable Republican candidate statewide, especially since the Democrats don't really have a statewide candidate sans Mark Warner, who nearly won the seat in 1996. Davis could also have the chance of carrying his own House district in a Senate race, which a Democrat would need to carry to win statewide.

Still, a Davis candidacy for the Senate leaves his very competitive 11th district seat open. The Virginia 11th only narrowly voted for Bush by 2,000 votes out of 323,000 cast. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006 both carried the district by fairly wide margins. The district is about as Republicans as the Arizona 8 or New York 24, both of which went to the Democratic candidates by fairly wide margins in 2006. Democrats only hold three of the eleven House seats in Virginia, despite their growing power in the state. Davis' seat would be a top pickup opportunity.