Sunday, August 19, 2007

2008 Senate Races- Democrats First Glance


Arkansas- The only way this becomes a race is if Mike Huckabee drops out of the Presidential race and runs against Pryor. After his second place finish in the Iowa straw poll, the former Governor is licking his chops and probably looking for a VP slot. Pryor has little to worry about other than Huckabee. Democrats hold every statewide office and three of the four House seats. Favors Democrat

Delaware- Even if Joe Biden does get the Democratic nod, whoever runs in his place will win on his coattails, and even if Biden retires, unless Mike Castle runs for the seat, it will likely stay in Democratic hands. Biden will probably run though. Solid Democrat

Illinois- Durbin is probably the safest Senator up next year. Solid Democrat

Iowa- Tom Harkin has always weathered strong opposition and managed to pull out victories. His three opponents in his three reelection campaigns have all been popular Republican Congressmen from various parts of the state. He may face another again; Tom Latham or Steve King. If he can beat Jim Ross Lightfoot and Tom Tauke, he could beat Latham or King in a Democratic year. Favors Democrat

Louisiana- This should be an easy pickup for the Republicans, but the state's GOP House delegation have all passed on the race. Bobby Jindal is running for, and will probably be, governor, while Richard Baker, Jim McCrery, Rodney Alexander and Charles Boustany are all running for reelection to their House seats. Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy is being recruited to change parties and run, but he denies that he will. Unless Secretary of State Jay Dardenne gets into the race, Landrieu will be able to keep her seat…and if she does, it will be on pure luck. Slight Lean Democrat

Massachusetts- The people of the Bay State may be a little peeved at their junior Senator, but they're not going to replace him with a Republican. Solid Democrat

Michigan- This should be a race, but nobody is running. Rep. Candice Miller is probably waiting to run for Debbie Stabenow's seat in 2012. If Stabenow couldn't be beat, the chair of the Armed Services Committee sure can't. Solid Democrat

Montana- After Conrad Burns' loss last year, Republicans want to defeat Max Baucus. Congressman Dennis Rehberg is not running. The only candidate is former State House Majority Leader Michael Lange. Baucus is going to be helped by the reelection of popular Governor Brian Schweitzer. Favors Democrat

New Jersey- If the GOP couldn't defeat Bob Menendez, and that wasn't even close, they can't beat Frank Lautenberg or whichever Democrat decides to replace him. The Garden State is out of reach for the GOP right now. Favors Democrat

Rhode Island- The second coming of Lincoln Chafee couldn't beat Jack Reed. Go ahead, Governor Carcieri, give it a try, amuse us. Solid Democrat

South Dakota- Tim Johnson's illness may actually be a blessing in disguise (if that's possible.) Governor Mike Rounds would've defeated him, he's not running now. Johnson should win a close race, but if he were to retire, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would win a close race. Lean Democrat

West Virginia- Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito or Secretary of State Betty Ireland, other than that, Rockefeller is going to cruise for reelection. Capito would be the strongest candidate, but her House seat is shaky. Interesting note; her father defeated Rockefeller for Governor in 1972 and lost to him for the same office in 1980. Solid Democrat

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