Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Polls vs. Mood

Conventional wisdom points to an inevitable Clinton vs. Giuliani race, which seems to lean ever so slightly to Hillary, but when you feel the true pulse of America, it's hard to find anyone who is truly behind one of the other.

I've heard many times in conversations with family and friends that a vote for one is against the other "Giuliani's a fascist, so I'll have to vote for Clinton" or "Clinton is wishy-washy, so I'll have to vote to Giuliani, even though he's just like Bush"

Why not vote for either? This election is a year from being over, and a lot can happen in a year. Remember, if you will, of the inevitability of Edmund Muskie in 1972, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Howard Dean in 2004.

Andrew Sullivan feels the pulse of America;

There are only two candidates who effectively respond to this desire for change of direction abroad and repair at home. They are Barack Obama for the Democrats and Ron Paul for the Republicans. The voters most engaged with this campaign so far - as measured by fundraising and enthusiasm - are clearly favoring these two change agents.

An Obama-Paul race, which in my opinion leans heavily to Obama, would truly be an indication of a united America wanted something different than what it's been fed for the last decade or so. (I'm including Clinton's years in that as well) These two candidates have hit on the idea that America needs to do a 180 and fast the most. Obama's excellent fundraising and Paul's one-day fundraising marathon yesterday indicates to me that there is plenty of support for these two underdogs out there in their respective parties. Doesn't it seem odd that the one major point these two people agree on is that we need a less aggressive and more responsible foreign policy? Will they win the primaries? I think it's unlikely, but they sure can make the eventual nominees sweat a bit. Perhaps those polls that make Clinton and Giuliani seem evitable aren't really touching the pulse of America. Perhaps we're in for a surprise come the New Year.

Despite this, I still say we're looking at a Clinton vs. Romney race out there.

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