Tuesday, April 3, 2007

OR-Sen, DeFazio Considering A Run


Reluctantly, he says, Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-Oregon) is considering a run against Republican Senator Gordon Smith next year.

DeFazio is widely considered one of the strongest challengers to Smith, second only to former Governor John Kitzhaber, who is not running.

Smith is quite vulnerable, a Republican in an increasingly Democratic state. Smith was one of two GOP Senators (the other was Hagel,) to support the Democrats' funding bill with the deadline. He is increasingly critical of the Iraq war.

While Oregon is not Rhode Island, Smith, along with Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) is seen as a Lincoln Chafee-type character. A fairly popular Republican who can be defeated because he represents a state where his party is super unpopular. Also a factor, whether or not the Democratic presidential candidate is going to be a strong one. Oregon has voted Democratic in the last five elections, but Al Gore only beat George Bush by about 6800 votes statewide in 2000. DeFazio's district is very competitive. Although he has held it since 1986, Bush beat Gore in the district in 2000 and Kerry and Bush both got 49% of the vote there in 2004. It has a PVI of D+1.

A recent poll shows DeFazio would have a slight lead coming out of the gate. If DeFazio was able to win his Southern Oregon district, and get Democrats to the polls in Astoria and Portland, the Democratic base, he could easily oust Smith.

The congressman, however, says the main reason he wouldn't run is his dislike for raising the millions of dollars needed to win statewide.

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